Waving "Bye Bye" to our Dunning-Kruger country?

It is a good start. The Midterm elections are now over. And what seemed, early on, like another version of the 2016 election night debacle has since played out in a satisfying way. But it felt really ugly for a short time.

Mrs. Daily Kibitz and I were at a fun and fancy Election Night Party when the results began to manifest on the TV screens. The crowd was of a decided political Blue persuasion (and I helped provide some "blue" commentary). Expectations for the long-predicted "Blue Wave" were very high. After two years of living in TrumpWorld, everyone wanted to see the electoral push-back that would certify that our country wasn't going anywhere near 1932 Germany.

But by 11pm, the party was experiencing a collective sense of dread in the pit of our stomachs. Florida, which polls had Dems taking for Senate and Governor, was going Racist Red. Polls had also looked good for Indiana, but it flipped from Blue to Red. Missouri and North Dakota flipped Red. Even an indicted Republican Member of Congress was beating his opponent in upstate New York. Texan Beto O'Rourke, though a long-shot, conceded to Ted Cruz.  Everything we knew or hoped for  was wrong, again. Why, O Lord? Was Job a Never-Trumper?

TV talking heads spoke of a No-Wave, even a Red Tide. The Senate races had become a rout against the Democrats, with some experts suddenly predicting a GOP bump of 5 - 8 seats! The presumed House lock for Democrats was not assured. It was going to be a long night. Party glasses of prosecco were exchanged for tall tumblers of vodka and bourbon. Several attendees quietly left.

And then something happened. The results from the Mountain and West Coast time zones began to find their way onto the screens. Blue began to flip Red. Close House races in Virginia and Georgia went to the Dems. The lock on the House was secured for the Democrats. And then, it began to build.

The next morning, Trump held a bat-shit press conference where he announced the Midterms were "very close to a complete victory" for him, despite the House would soon be controlled by Democrats. Evidently, he had gone to bed when the TV pundits were suggesting that the GOP had staunched the Blue Wave. In fact, as time went on, Trump clung to the belief that the votes counted on Election Night were the only ones that mattered. Then he spun some inane BS about voter fraudsters changing disguises, and needing an ID to buy cereal. (As historian Douglas Brinkley has observed, Trump is a bull who brings along his own china shop.)

But Trump was wrong, as usual. In the days following Election Night, the Democratic vote continued to swell. Absentee ballots, provisional ballots and military ballots were added to the mix. Recounts were held. More and more House races went to Democrats. What seemed like a humble ripple early on Election Night has since swelled into a massive Blue Wave.

How big is Big? Pretty damn big.

Before the election, the House was 242 - 193, advantage GOP over Democrats. Today, the sides have switched: 235 Democratic seats to 200 Republicans. The Democrats picked up 42 seats, many more than predicted during Election Night and the most they've achieved since the days of Richard Nixon. Moreover, looking at all 435 House contests as a single nationwide popular vote, the Democrats amassed an 8% surplus over the GOP. That is significant in a democracy (although our Electoral College has something to say about whether we live in a democracy).

Here's a personal benchmark for this being Big: In my hometown of Glen Ellyn, Illinois, there hasn't been a Democratic Member of Congress representing it since... 1938. Yup, since the Great Depression. Since before World War 2. Since before Television. Well, say hello to Democratic Representative Sean Casten!

"OK, but what about the Senate?" The Republicans have added a couple of seats to their Senate total. Their advantage will be 53 - 47.  But the Senate electoral map here was especially tough to contemplate anything better than a "hold" for Democratic best case scenario. The GOP had to defend 9 seats, all in Red States. They lost two of them. The Democrats had to defend 35 seats, including 15 in Red States that Trump won handily. They lost four of them. The Dems did well here, considering the radically uneven playing field.

So... what does it all mean?

It means that beginning January 3, 2019, Democrats will control the House of Representatives. They will chair all House committees. These committees have wide-ranging abilities to conduct oversight and investigations with subpoena power. The potential for unearthing what has been covered up/ignored since the 2016 election campaign is enormous.

The current hallmarks of the GOP Kakistocracy in DC are rank, grifting greed and amoral/unethical  power politics applied to achieve long-standing ideological goals at the expense of the nation's health. These goals have been to kill the ACA/Obamacare, kill Roe v. Wade, kill watchdog regulations across the board, and kill government entitlement programs like Social Security. With a Democratic House, these GOP platform planks become very unlikely.

And despite Mueller-loathing Matthew Whitaker acting as a "temporary" Attorney General, the Special Counsel investigations will continue. There are nearly 36 unidentified sealed indictments on the DC Federal Court docket. There are other ones resting on the Eastern District of Virginia court docket, too. These could drop very soon; moreover, there will many new ones to compile.

And the House Judiciary, Intelligence and Foreign Relations Committees will now be acting as collaborative agents of Justice with the Special Counsel as the investigations continue. As I've suggested before, there will be a TON of shocking revelations as time goes on. Prison sentences. Careers will be ruined. Businesses will be destroyed. The GOP will be staggered. Some Democrats will be affected, too. It's not wrapping up anytime soon - the scope of these investigations is too enormous for a quick wrap-up. Spend a few minutes with this (pre-Helsinki Conference) extraordinary analysis of Trump as Russian Asset to better envision the real enormity of things:

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/07/trump-putin-russia-collusion.html

Wowzers. Now use this info to understand the behavior of certain individuals over the last two years... Deny, Deflect, Push Back, Double Down. Repeat.

Anyhow, yes! Big Blue Wave!! If we survive the next six weeks, our country is poised to begin turning things around. Appreciation for quaint and neglected values like integrity and expertise will seep back into the system. We're not near the end. We're not at the beginning of the end. But we are past the end of the beginning.

To help celebrate the Blue Wave, check out this hilarious picture! When a couple posed recently for a Wedding Proposal photo, they were joined by some "significant otters." Sorry about that... Should be quite a wedding party!

On The Eve Of Something Huge About To Go Down

Something is happening with Trump. And though I am skeptical of many things, and not particularly conspiracy theory minded, recent events are kinda puzzling.

The morning after the midterm elections, he fired Attorney General Jeff Sessions and immediately put in Sessions' Chief of Staff, Matthew Whitaker, as Acting Attorney General. The transition was described as frenzied with an imperative rush to get Whitaker into office ASAP. Whitaker is widely seen as a stooge having one job to do: put the kibosh on the Mueller Investigation.

There was an immediate blowback to Trump's placement of Whitaker, with experts insisting that it is an unconstitutional/illegal move. While this crisis plays out, Trump and the GOP are sussing out the Democratic "blue wave" that flipped the House of Representatives. The Democrats will have full oversight responsibilities and subpoena powers in January.

The President flew to Paris for the 100th Anniversary of the end of World War 1. He filled his transatlantic flight time with angry tweets, mostly berating the media, talking up Whitaker,  and accusing Democrats of stealing the election.

Then he arrived in the City of Lights and things became quieter.

On Day One there, Trump chose to not attend the ceremony at the cemetery where 2,289 American soldiers are buried, mostly from the Battle of Belleau Woods. There was drizzling rain. The official excuse was that the presidential helicopter shouldn't fly through inclement weather. However, as a former Obama travel coordinator reports, there is always a back up travel plan for inclement weather regarding presidential visits and travel. In fact, Chief of Staff Kelly, Secretary of State Pompeo, various generals and staff were all there. They drove the 50 miles.

Instead, Trump spent the extra 7 hours holed up in the residence of the US ambassador to France, Jamie McCourt (Trump fundraiser and former Los Angeles Dodgers co-owner). No one knows what was happening inside. The dome of silence had descended.

The next day, he was scheduled to join the leaders of Europe in a unified march down the Champs Elysee to the Arc de Triomphe to observe the WW1 centennial remembrance ceremony. Except he didn't show up with the others. So they march on without him. He arrives, late, at the ceremony site.

Coincidentally, so does Vladimir Putin. In fact, they are the only two leaders to not participate in the unified march. As Putin takes his place among the leaders, the recently arrived Trump gives him a rare big creepy smile. Followed later by a thumbs up and friendly ol' pat on the back.

Trump listened to the host French President Macron describe how the demons that caused World War One are returning again. Macron explicitly rails against the notion of nationalism and extols patriotism. Trump, the self-described Nationalist, nearly plotzes! Here is that moment:

Afterwards, Trump's handlers are distressed at the awful PR situation. They assure the press that Trump's Big Moment will be when he delivers the trip's Major Speech at the Suresnes Cemetery before heading home the next day. Meanwhile, more quiet from Trump.

And the next day he did show up, and on time. But he spoke in barely audible tones, in what has been charitably described as "disjointed" and "inarticulate". For a look at this bafflement, check it out:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/ideological-battle-lines-clear-at-armistice-centenary-commemorations-1.3694347#.W-nEC3dPgyE.twitter

"Mr. Trump delivers a history lesson for beginners, calling it a 'horrible, horrible war, but a war known as The Great War...' Mr. Trump conveyed no depth of feeling, no sense of gravitas or history. Much of his speech was comprised of lists of American men in the audience: top military brass, congressmen and Second World War veterans. He said "thank you" 33 times, calling out their names individually." Yes, that was a 10-minute Major Speech; Demosthenes would have been proud.

Then it was off to the airport and back to DC. Some more transatlantic tweets about how Democrats are stealing the Midterm elections. Once landed and returned safely yesterday evening to the White House, the Trump quiet grows.

Today is Veteran's Day observance. It is a President's unofficial duty to take the 10 minute drive over to Arlington National Cemetery. To lay a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, and deliver appropriate remarks. But today it was overcast, with a chance of drizzle. So Trump declined to attend the de rigeur event. Something that all other Presidents, like Barack Obama always did, including in 2009 during a steady rainstorm. I love the fact that Mr. and Mrs. Obama later went out of their way to wander into the cemetery proper and spend significant time with surprised, bereaved and wet family members of fallen soldiers.

Obama at Arlington on a rainy Memorial Day

Back to point. Trump has been quiet in the White House all day - no events, nothing on the planner. In fact, Fox News twitter, Wikileaks, and Drudge Report have all been quiet; Fox has been down for over two days.

Someone who was NOT quiet today is Michael Cohen, Trump's onetime personal lawyer. He flew down from NYC today and visited with Robert Mueller's investigators for several hours. They appear to be prepping him for a Grand Jury appearance this Friday.

The brouhaha about appointing Matthew Whitaker spins on the notion of his ability to end the Mueller investigation. Even if he is able fire Mueller and otherwise starve the investigation's budget, it is probably too late. Reports over the weekend indicate that there are DOZENS of sealed indictments ready to go public at a moment's notice.

https://observer.com/2018/11/mueller-holding-dozens-sealed-indictments-intel-source/

"An Intelligence Community official who assisted the Special Counsel's investigation told me this week that Team Mueller is holding "dozens of sealed indictments" of people associated with the president, his 2015-2016 campaign, and his administration. 'Nobody who's close to the Russians is getting out of this,' said the IC official."

This was the same claim made much earlier by Wild Loon Lady and former Member of Parliament, Louise Mensch. As crazy as her assertions have been, she seems to be earning the title of Modern Day Cassandra, delivering predictions that no one believed until they came true. She has insisted that Trump is already the subject of two sealed indictments, and that "dozens" of other sealed indictments exist as of this time last year! When contacted for comment about this common claim, Ms. Mensch said that her sources are different from the source cited by Spy Guy Mr. Schindler. Hmmmmm:

https://patribotics.blog/2018/11/10/the-trump-russia-indictments-what-to-expect/

The upshot here is that many indictments are ready to drop. Sometime between right now and Thanksgiving, most likely. These won't be penny-ante variety. Think Donald Jr, Roger Stone and a cast of A-List players in Trump's D-List Reality TV Administration. And Matthew Whitaker may not be able to do a thing about it.

All this may be my fevered mind playing up a hunch. But why did Rupert Murdoch pay a closed door, after-hours visit to Mitch McConnell while Trump flew to Paris? This is one crazy thread:

https://twitter.com/gregolear/status/1061461804403056640

Following his visit, Murdoch's Fox twitter site goes dark, as do the other aforementioned conservative sites. Trump cancels visits in France and spends inordinate quiet time in isolation. Except a visit with Putin. Then he gets back to DC -- and cancels a visit to Arlington Cemetery. More quiet time in isolation, except for some more bogus tweets about Democrats stealing the election. It's very odd.

Long story short: If you thought October was crazy, the next few weeks are going to be WILD. It won't slow down until January 3, 2019 when the Democrats officially take over the House of Representatives. Then it becomes a very different kind of crazy.

On a concluding note, Stan Lee finally departed from our mortal world after 95 years. Like many others, I viewed Stan Lee as a kind of secret mentor. The creator of the Marvel Universe juggernaut played an integral part in the development of my own early teen values system. The mid-60's was a weird time to be growing up - heck, it was a weird time for everyone. For a goofy, messed-up kid like me, the characters of Spider-Man, Doctor Strange, The Silver Surfer, Prince Namor and others provided a moral clarity I often lacked and a sense of union in their vulnerabilities.

Lee's super-hero characters hurt. Sure, they hurt villains - but they themselves hurt, deeply. Their suffering was not the stuff of Superman & Co.. They were filled with human complexity, feeling the sweet sting of life. Lee's stories thrived on moral conundrums and dilemmas. The actions taken by his characters were sometimes successful, but often they opened the way to greater conflict and doubt.

Yesterday, I saw a brilliant slogan: Belief+Doubt = Sanity. It made me think of Stan Lee. Stan Lee's story-telling and stable of relatable characters helped develop my inner compass. In the tumult of a time when civil rights were fought for and a horrible war was fought against, young Americans like me could open a comic book and feel like they were being spoken to directly by a dependable wise man. Here is a prime example: following the conclusion of an issue's story, Stan Lee had a sort of forum where he'd ramble on topics, answer questions, and so forth. I ran into this today, and remember reading it back then. It stuck with me.

Smilin' Stan Lee. Excelsior! You will be missed.