Adios y buen viaje, 2018. Bienvenido, 2019.

Today's Kibitz features the value of saying Goodbye/Good Riddance and why Immigrants are not the boogeymen. We also review our 2018 predictions, and boldly post what's going to happen in 2019!

Good Riddance Day! What could be a better idea for the closing moments of 2018? This has become a tradition in NYC Times Square, where the public is invited to write down what they most want to say 'Sayonara' to. Then, after being posted briefly for everyone to read, these thoughts are placed into a shredder and away they go! Yes, good riddance and it's so therapeutic; if only it could be that simple.

https://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/nydn-people-shred-their-2018-bad-memories-at-good-riddance-day-in-times-square-20181228-photogallery.html

Vying for the top spot of The Daily Kibitz's own 'Good Riddance' note is Fox News and specifically Tucker Carlson. In a year that featured a Fox fleet of supertanker's worth of BS being broadcast every day, Carlson finished the season strong with his recent comments about immigrants. They "are making our country poorer, dirtier and more divided" was a just-in-time-for-Christmas feel-good statement.  And before there is any question, Carlson spoke of Immigrants. No "illegal" or "undocumented" qualifiers.

Stay with me here, it may sound crazy but it just might be that Tucker Carlson and his like-minded friends at Fox are simple-minded, nationalist racists. If they aren't, they are broadcasting messages that connect with a simple-minded, nationalist racist audience. You know, the Trump base.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2018/12/15/tucker-carlson-said-immigration-makes-america-dirtier-so-an-advertiser-took-action/?utm_term=.31624a0ce056

The overwhelming majority of economists agree that we need immigrants. Our country consistently experiences significant socio-economic churn. Our population ages. We need a constant labor and brain supply to fill the gap of what we can't provide on our own. Immigrants represent the needed "in-take" for our economic engine to expand and thrive. Cutting them off would be like pinching off the gas line of your car. Here's what our friends at the Brooking Institute have to say about this issue:

https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/in-defense-of-immigrants-heres-why-america-needs-them-now-more-than-ever/

Immigrants come in all colors and classes. From Laborers to CEOs. When we place an "Immigrants Not Welcome" sign at our door, well... guess where the next generation of non-American doctors, engineers, scientists, entrepreneurs, etc. are NOT going to go. Our colleges are a major destination for overseas students - for now. But other countries have great colleges too and will be seen as more welcoming. This "No Immigrants Allowed" idea has been a policy goal within the Trump Administration since ever (see Steven Bannon and Stephen Miller). It's nothing new for hard right wingnuts who want a White Christian Nation.

So... Good Riddance! I shredded my note, and I feel a little bit better.


As you may recall, at this time last year I went into a trance and uttered out a brief series of events/scenarios called The Daily Kibitz 2018 Predictions. Let's take a quick peek at what kind of prognosticating skills I have:

-- Trump is not impeached, but may not remain in office past early 2019. His criminal culpability will be revealed. There may be an arrangement made for him to just go away...

-- Jared Kushner and Donald Jr. are toast. Ivanka cuts a deal and skates.

-- Congress does not act to impeach because some GOP-ers are complicit with Russian money, influence and "kompromat". Republican leadership is "circling the wagons" to prevent damning details from emerging.

-- November Mid-Terms will be tumultuous and see Democrats winning back the House by a slender margin. Senate remains Republican by one vote. There will be enormous problems with voter suppression and tech-based voting "glitches". Epic long lines of people waiting to vote.  Russia continues its bot and disinformation campaign in service for the GOP.

-- Threat of war in North Korea (there may even be a coup that ousts Lil' Kim), but the real action takes place in the Persian Gulf region.

-- Many more present and past Members of Congress revealed as sexual harassers/predators... both parties. In fact, the whole #metoo movement will upend virtually every corner of American life. Long overdue!!

-- More drought out West, working its way to the East. Ocean and Air Temps continue to rise.

-- The Chicago White Sox finish last in their division in 2018, but will win the Wild Card in 2019.

OK... not bad. A little wobbly here and there, but what the hey. Some of these happened and others may yet occur. I continue to think that Trump won't be impeached, but he won't finish his term, either. Kushner and Jr. will face a judge at some point, and Ivanka will not.

What I didn't see coming was how a Supreme Court nominee confirmation process could distill the #MeToo movement into a month of outrage, galvanizing both bases which resulted in a historic 40-seat Blue Wave in the House of Representatives.

Another event not foreseeable was the super fun Trump-Putin Helsinki summit. Spending hours with Putin with just a translator - no records were kept and no review of the meeting was ever released - was bad enough. But when The President took Putin's side against all 14 U.S. intelligence agencies... well, I can't imagine any other President remaining President for very long. But then, he had a complicit Congress to protect him.

Oh, I could bore you for hours about other events transpired that were unforeseeable... but instead, let's turn to future unforeseeables - The Daily Kibitz 2019 Predictions!

-- There will be a major reveal through the Mueller investigation that makes everyone say, "huh". By mid-year or so, we see that Mueller, the SDNY and other investigations have plenty on Trump, but he is not the primary target.

-- Chief Justice John Roberts will disappoint the GOP this year. Watch him "manage" Kavanaugh and Gorsuch.

-- There will be some sort of Bump between militaries in the South China Sea, near the artificial islands that China has been constructing.

-- As the US exerts more pressure against Iran, there might be some retaliatory Iranian/Russian cyber shenanigans involving US infrastructure.

-- More Cabinet members will get canned. Likely next on the block: Dr. Ben Carson of H.U.D.

-- There will be a tumultuous confirmation process for Bill Barr as Attorney General. He will get confirmed, but it will be a Pyrrhic Victory with no trust or confidence in his actions or office.

-- The U.S. economy goes into serious wobble mode by Halloween.

-- Another record year for high temperatures world-wide. More droughts here and more rainfall deluges there. Greenland will continue to be in the news as its ice blanket melts. The House of Representatives will hold high-profile hearings on climate change and the immediate socio-economic negative impact it brings.

-- The 2020 primary season kicks in after Labor Day. Trump keeps others out of the GOP race. It's his party. The Democrats squabble and scrabble, looking for messages and candidates. By the end of year, it's Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Beto O'Rourke, Cory Booker and Amy Klobucher at the head of a crowded pack.

-- The Chicago White Sox will finish last in their division. Injuries and front office screw-ups keep them from progressing. This prediction is on repeat.

Wow. That's a lot going on for 2019. I won't even tell you what I see happening in 2020, because you wouldn't believe me... and I don't believe it, either. Regardless, we're in for a helluva ride this next year. Hope it's safe and healthy and fun for you, and - as always - thanks for reading!!

Merry Chrismahanukwanzakah

Season's Greetings! May 2019 be better than 2018. May our 401Ks recover. And may the president get a lump of beautiful clean coal in his stocking.

For your holiday soundtrack, Bob Dylan (!!!) swings out with a fantastic version of "Must Be Santa". This is my kind of Christmas party:

Can We Cross The Finnish Line?

We at The Daily Kibitz spent the previous week in sun-kissed Southern California. Happy for us? After spending a couple of days at Disneyland for business (weird and kinda fun), we witnessed first hand the conditions that create the infamous California wildfires. While hiking up a Mt. Hollywood trail, we observed wide swaths of recent burns. Fires happen in this kind of terrain because of parched plant growth and dry hot air; when a combustion event happens, it travels fast.

Climate change is the primary culprit, creating long term drought patterns and shifting, strong Santa Ana winds that create classic cases of widespread wildfire catastrophe. Climate change also plays into the overpopulation factor of the region and the ongoing water management dilemma of People v. Crops.

The area was still reacting to President Trump's recent visit to the state. He had memorably toured the  awful Camp Fire site, twice referring to the incinerated town of Paradise, California as "Pleasure." After viewing the charred remains, he commented on how firefighters were working hard to retard the fire. He then remarked on how, as a technique, some firefighters were raking burning leaves on the ground away from trees. On a roll, Trump invented a recent conversation he had had with the Finnish president regarding Finland's lack of mega-wildfires. "They spend a lot of time on raking and cleaning and doing things and they don't have any problems," Trump observed. This lead to much ridicule after the Finn Prez denied ever saying anything like that.

Trump shouldn't have stopped with seeking Fire Fighting Tips. Considering how Finland leads the United States in many Quality Of Life categories, he really let an opportunity slip by. We should be getting Finnish tips on improving our Health Care (#6 vs. USA #29), Education (#6 vs. USA #24), and their premier Social Safety Net programs. Also, how they are world leaders with the all-important Happiness rating (#1 vs. USA #18).

Trump famously questioned why there aren't more Norwegians immigrating to America, instead of people from Shithole Countries. Why should they? Scandinavian countries in general rank at the top of any QOL listings. They are taxed much more than here, because, you know, Socialist. But... you get what you pay for. And their citizens seem to think it's just fine.

What is definitely NOT fine is the Trump Administration's stance toward Climate Change. This is the most important issue the world faces, bar none. Trump and the GOP are lockstep in their moves to deregulate and defenestrate environmental standards and policies that affect Business. For example, the new EPA head, a former coal industry lobbyist, announced plans to do away with CO2 emission rules. (To number similar instances of anti-Environment practices supported by Trump/GOP would be much too long, mind-numbing and enraging for our purposes here.)

It is very possible that Trump just doesn't care. Shocking, right? Like other business honchos, he prolly figures that the environment's collapse won't happen until after he is dead... so it just doesn't matter and in the meantime, let's maximize profits! Certainly, his dismissive reaction to the recently released (mandated) report from the EPA, the National Climate Assessment, which portrays a truly dire picture for our world, was Classic Trump. Subsequent follow-up studies are similarly damning. Take two minutes to peruse this powerful thread from the Washington Post environmental writer:

https://twitter.com/chriscmooney/status/1070715518963904514

Yep, Greenland ice melt has kicked into overdrive. Thanks, carbon emissions! Oh, and how is more CO2 affecting other accelerent factors to Climate Change, like methane gas release from thawing permafrost in Alaska, Canada and Siberia? As a "greenhouse gas" methane is 30 times more powerful than CO2. And a whole bunch is already seeping into the atmosphere, with a critical mass more poised to enter, thanks to rising atmospheric temps. Add methane to carbon to spike the atmosphere, which melts the ice, which causes more drastic changes in our world. Refugees by the millions abandoning uninhabitable lands. Widespread drought, crop failure, famine, insect infestation and disease. It's the planet's way of trying to shake off the thing that is hurting it, which is us.

"I don't believe it" just doesn't cut it. The current climate crisis is what our military has been planning for and warning about for years. It's what the Paris Accords are all about, with the US being the only nation to withdraw. It's what oil companies have known for decades, and sought to cover up.

According to the National Climate Assessment, we have a slender window of opportunity to seize the day. No more than a decade or so. After that, the tipping point becomes unstoppable. Meanwhile, our White House, its agencies and the GOP Senate are set to cement their retro-climate policies to 1950s standards, the age they see as When America Was Great. What we really need is to Make America Finnish.


On Thursday, Pete Shelley passed away at age 63. He was the frontman for Buzzcocks, my favorite band from the late 1970s. There were other bands that were more popular and carried greater cachet with pop culture opinion-makers. But Shelley never seemed concerned with being This Year's Model. Buzzcocks emerged with the Sex Pistols in the early British punk scene. But they weren't really Punk, except in their Do It Yourself attitude. Power Pop, oh yes. Shelley's songs were about things falling apart, the frustrations of the everyday, the constancy of romantic despair. Downers? Nope. They were witty and super-smart.  Shelley took his strong sense of poetics and harnessed punk's energy with terrific melodies. Here is a typical song that plays as well today as it did in 1979:

"Everybody's Happy Nowadays". Somewhere in an alternate universe, on Planet Earth X, where everything we always wanted exists, Shelley and Buzzcocks rule the airwaves. They ruled here, too, but too few knew of their realm.