Draining The COVID Fever Swamp

Look out, below! The lockdowns are becoming looser, which may be good. But also, it may be bad. It's good for the short term economy and may save a number of on-the-brink businesses and jobs. It's bad because opening up densely populated areas too soon will very likely cause a resurgence of the virus. And then we go through everything all over again, with gusto! Yay.

(This reminds me of a COVID joke I saw -
"The spread of COVID-19 is dependent on two things:
1 - the density of the population, and
2 - the density of the population.")

Now I know what you're thinking: "Wait, Daily Kibitz, what gives? Your last edition claimed that this next one would deal with how COVID will shade every bloomin' aspect of our lives going forward! The economic portrait you drew was enough to search desperately for silver linings, so where are they?"

OK, I get it. But before getting into my promised visionary take on what the post-COVID world might look like, I kept thinking about the epistemological traits of the virus itself. As we learned in the previous Kibitz post, the post-COVID world might begin in a couple of months... or a couple of years. It depends on the still-mysterious virus and how societies react to it. And while there is cause for optimism (a Korean or Israeli vaccine? Reliable antibody tests?) it's good to temper it with an appropriate amount of cautious skepticism. Otherwise, we march into an unfamiliar black forest under a moonless night with only blind faith to orient us.

So let's take this opportunity to dig in a little to better understand what kind of pickle we are in.

Here is an interesting set of charts that follow the infection rates of countries world-wide, and states within the U.S. Click on it and then you can pass your cursor over any nation or state and see its history. The best charts are the ones at the bottom that adjust the infection rate per million population:

https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

Yep, that's some great information! A number of plateaus, but not many dips. What the hell is Israel doing that's so effective? Big clue: Research at places like the Weizmann Institute of Science!! And this terrific article in Haaretz says it all regarding Israeli researchers' consistent focus and caution while balancing aggressive experimentation:

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-what-we-did-right-israeli-doctors-explain-how-they-beat-coronavirus-1.8849374

Someday, stories like that will be a part of a great book and movie. (TL;DR - don't take hydroxychloroquine!!)

Prefer a spreadsheet for your analysis? Here ya go:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?utm_campaign=homeAdvegas1?%20%3Ca%20href=

Yes, according to this data, as of Friday, USA has over 97,000 confirmed COVID fatalities. If we were ghoulish enough to line up victims head to foot in a single line, it would stretch over 110 miles. We'll surely hit 100K by Monday, Memorial Day. And let's not think too much about the unconfirmed fatalities, which may account for the unusually high number of deaths in hard-hit states.

OK, here is a fine article produced by ProPublica. They interviewed the front line public health heads of nations succeeding with COVID and their economies. Their aggregated takeaway is wise:

https://www.propublica.org/article/coronavirus-advice-from-abroad-7-lessons-americas-governors-should-not-ignore-as-they-reopen-their-economies

"We all have to live with Coronavirus for at least a year and probably 2 - 3 years," says one expert. That's the reality. But to squash it down to non-threatening levels, these experts recommend state governors take these actions:

-- Build an army of contact tracers to identify and limit the virus carriers.
-- Be prepared to test constantly while striving to keep the new positive cases test rate under 5%.
-- Isolate people with suspected infections from their families.
-- Protect health workers (and keep them coming back to work, because it's "game over" otherwise).
-- Normal is not the goal. We'll need masks, temperature checks, social distancing, etc. for awhile.
-- Keep vigilant for a Second Wave of infections.
-- Clear and transparent communications about the disease and treatment is critical.

But what about Herd Immunity, I hear some of you say! Why can't we simply "open 'er up" and let the chips fall where they may? Aren't most COVID victims ancient or have pre-existing conditions? Aren't we all going to get COVID at some point anyway? Don't we need to consider the acceptable number of deaths versus the demise of our economy and lifestyle? And aren't church-goers shielded by the blood of Christ?

Yes, I hear all that, often. It's understandable that many people are becoming desperate as their rent becomes due and they see their debit card denied. This is the biggest mess since The Great Depression. But magical thinking won't help. Understanding the situation better will. So let's check out this engaging and excellent article on COVID and Herd Immunity:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/without-a-vaccine-herd-immunity-wont-save-us/

The writers present an illness they call "Fictionitis" and ask you to determine its parameters. Using the easy interactive choices, you can create the R0 (transmittable rate), the Mortality Rate, and the Immunity Duration. Try it, it's fun and educational!! All these choices are required in figuring a communicable disease's Herd Immunity threshold.

Currently, experts' best-guess estimate for achieving COVID Herd Immunity is when the virus goes through at least 70% of the population... maybe up to 90%. That means at least 230 million Americans need to get infected before achieving this threshold. Currently, we have 1,642,000 cases, or 0.5% of the population.

Even then, crossing the threshold doesn't mean the end of a disease like COVID. "It only slowly goes down, and on its way down, it infects another third of the population. If you drive a car and suddenly you switch it off, it doesn't stop instantly."

How long would COVID antibody immunity last? According to the article, no one really knows. Patients with similar coronaviruses like SARS and MERS have immune cells present in their bodies for years. But there are researchers who draw parallels to HIV, which creates huge loads of antibodies in patients but doesn't stop it.

"Our bodies could stop short of completely killing off the virus in the first place, allowing it to lie dormant and reemerge later like HIV. It could evolve enough that our old antibodies won't work anymore, whether we got them from natural exposure or vaccine. This is what seasonal flu does, and a part of why we need a new vaccine every year. Or the immune response we produce could just fade too quickly, making us susceptible to reinfection." We don't yet know if "COVID immune" people  could become re-infected, like we see with HIV immune cells.

In determining the fatality rate, accurate tests are essential, including serological tests that detect antibodies. The higher the case count, the lower the fatality rate. Now for comparison, seasonal flu has a 0.1 fatality rate. And from what the authors can conclude from New York City as of mid-May, COVID may have hit 21% of its residents. This places NYC's fatality rate at 1.1%, or 10 times deadlier than the seasonal flu.

If this fatality rate is accurate and plays out across the country, along with an unmitigated "open 'er up" Wild-West style of no restraints and all-in with crossing the Herd Immunity threshold, we can expect a floor of 2 1/2 million deaths. Recall we've only reached a number of 0.5% infected patients on our way to a projected 70%+ population threshold figure. And we cross the 100,000 deaths mark  sometime this weekend.

So whaddaya do? In the immediate end, the uncertainties of this virus remain the biggest obstacle we face. I think most people will continue to err on caution's side and observe CDC guidelines. But there will be abundant crowds of Magical Thinkers who believe that the virus will not affect them.

These folk need to listen to Owen Filer. He's 100 years old. He's been through a few world crises. He thinks this is the worst. But he's not scared. In fact, he laughs a lot. A sharper centenarian you'll never see. He's really great:

If we can live to be 100 years old and display the wit and poise of Owen Filer, we should be so lucky.

That's it for now! Next time, my visionary take on our future, for real...

What Will It Be Like When We Get There? (Part One)

Wowzers. Here we are, huddling apart in our socially distant fox holes, waiting for the "All Clear" signal to ring forth. You know, the moment when the Good Guys let everyone know it's safe to come on out because the enemy has been defeated. We did it! And life can go back to normal. The End.

With all of the extraordinary events that have transpired since the 2016 election campaign, I can safely say that our lives will not go back to "normal" because that fanciful state of being has been M.I.A. for some time. We've been living in a whirlwind since well before the pandemic hit. But now that the virus has got us in its insidious grip, we all look to better days ahead. What will our world be like when it's All Clear?

Our once-in-a-lifetime circumstances have created a societal tableau featuring the best and worst of what our country has to offer. Most folks are behaving quite responsibly during this national emergency by following CDC and state-mandated guidelines. It ain't easy, and many are really getting hit hard in the wallet. Others couldn't care less and some actively engage in provocative exhibitions that would probably kill them if they were black. Trying to enforce such simple rules as wearing face masks in stores is met with murder.

And while we wait for our deranged President Mean Girl to work through his daily "chaos of peeves, whims, hallucinations and all-around assholery" (thanks, Thomas Pynchon) let's consider how things may play out from a few different perspectives.

Because we are confronted with a crisis that has ignited multiple, larger crises (like how an atom bomb is used to detonate a hydrogen bomb), The Daily Kibitz will look at various ways that the virus may affect us all as we look for cover and stumble into the more-or-less immediate future. And on into the more distant one.

Everything will be based on this, from The Atlantic:

The Atlantic and the four timelines.

Yep, so much depends on a red vaccine wheelbarrow. Going forward, we will develop a treatment and/or a vaccine. Or, MAYBE acquire herd immunity at great mortal cost. Or, something worse: the virus mutates too quickly to properly develop a vaccine or acquire herd immunity and we maintain continuous lockdown. Or, it just goes away, "like a miracle."

Timeline #1: One to two months. Given this article appeared a month ago, this possibility is already obsolete. No treatment, no cure. Nope, not even injected/ingested bleach and UV lights.

Timeline #2: Three to four months. A treatment, not a cure, might be identified that can ease symptoms. But this timeline all depends on testing, which the U.S. is failing at, spectacularly.

Timeline #3: Four to twelve months. Maybe summer seasonality will slow it down and give us time to better understand and treat it. Or maybe it just doesn't slow, because of easing lockdowns and no seasonality (we'll know by late June).

Timeline #4: 12 to 18 months - or longer. No one expects a vaccine before spring of 2021, and it's more likely to be in the fall of 2021. In fact, there are some who suggest that if our lockdowns fail, rampant COVID could mean herd immunity; if it's possible, it begins to kick in by late autumn of 2021. It's a huge and costly "if".

Economic Outlook:

For the U.S. economy, according to the CNBC Fed Survey of economists, a "plurality" say we won't be fully restored until sometime in the 2nd quarter of 2022. The influential Mark Zandi says mid-decade. These projections are all dependent upon a vaccine and a couple more trillion dollars injected, like disinfectants, into the economy by the federal government.

Here's a piece by the Chair of Political Economy at the quite conservative American Enterprise Institute.  He takes a very dim view of opening society without a COVID-19 vaccine. "A Darwinian experiment to invite global herd immunity is unthinkable because it would entail untold millions of deaths." Sounds reasonable... and then he goes on:

https://www.nbr.org/publication/the-new-normal-thoughts-about-the-shape-of-things-to-come-in-the-post-pandemic-world/

He says that the Federal Reserve concludes the net worth of the bottom half of US citizens was lower in 2019 than it was in 1989... by one-third! Since then, of course, we have COVID-19 and that net worth has plummeted further down the abyss.

Without a vaccine, he sees "rolling lockdowns... a succession that presses economic performance severely in countries all around the world simultaneously." Our world economy structure will be chopped back. "It may be more difficult to convince a working majority that a globalized economy and other international entanglements actually work in their favor... we need an agenda/formula to generate prosperity for all."

He continues to see international lockdowns, blocks of travel and immigration, and a rise in Economic Nationalism along with diminished expectations of Globalization.  Glitchy, gummed-up  "international supply chains" will be regarded as less desirable, giving rise to domestically resourced chains, even though the costs of productions are higher and profits lower.

This scenario plays into the Steve Bannon and Steven Miller vision of the creative destruction of governance institutions in order to rebuild the nation into a whole new authoritarian order. Their shared long term goal: A shrinking labor force via aging demographics and a No Immigrants Allowed border block. Although they are intensely racist and stupid, this has been a goal of the Trump Administration.

The folks at The Bulwark are the sort that used to be the GOP before it became infected with the Racist Hyperpartisan Crazy virus. Here's their take on what lies ahead:

https://thebulwark.com/we-cannot-reopen-america/

No surprise, all future economic activity is dependent on the vaccine. And though some business sectors are unaffected and may even benefit from the pandemic, enough sectors will decline or collapse, sending severe recession/depression shock waves pulsing throughout the domestic and global economies.

Las Vegas is listed as an example for affected business sectors. When it reopens, w/o a vaccine or treatment, who is going to come? True believers and gambling addicts: just a trickle of the former reliable flow.  How about a local dinner and a movie? Any activity requiring physical interaction or close proximity to others is doomed. Such a "pandemic mindset" will continue with most consumers until a safe, reliable and cheap way is introduced to protect everyone.

"The list goes on and on: Dine-in restaurants, coffee shops, hotels, theme parks, concert venues, convention centers, shopping malls, museums, libraries, schools, colleges—every one of these businesses is headed into a nuclear winter that has nothing to do with stay-at home orders."

Their point is that many of these kinds of business may have been headed toward oblivion within a few years anyway... but COVID is the catalyst for instant economic change.

According to the Brookings Institution, broad economic transformation is already underway. Their take is a bit contrary to the American Enterprise Institute folk. In their view, national "Me First" responses in the international scene is self-evidently dead.  Replacing this Nationalism is an existential need to ensure multilateral responses for future cross-border crises like pandemics (and Climate Change) are effectively managed.

"Aggregate demand isn't falling everywhere. But all economic activity that involves physical interaction, both production and consumption, are imploding. Meanwhile, physically disjointed activities are exploding (like Amazon, or any other business with digital interaction). Instead of simply pouring trillions into maintaining business sectors that are suddenly obsolete, a fraction should be invested into this new economic infrastructure.

"It's like Fire Insurance. It's not money wasted all the years you pay in. It's a precaution, in case the house does go up in flames... like it is now."

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2020/03/27/awakening-in-the-post-pandemic-world/ 

Another conservative business voice, Forbes magazine, agrees that what once was will no longer be. Global supply chains will transform into domestic supply chains. U.S. companies won't trust their product flow from one foreign country... or anywhere outside the U.S. They will set up new, diversified and local sources for supply chain business.

In-store shopping and commercial real estate will flatline while everything adapts to the on-line experience - and stays adapted. Access and ability to work and learn online is now more vital than ever. "Home Bias" will increase dramatically. "We perceive higher risk the further away the threat is from us... we have a favorable bias/perception of lower risk for what is closer to home. Investors are likely to revert to more investing closer to home, where proper due diligence can be conducted."

Such loss of trust will take years to regain. Moreover, any business that depends on strangers will suffer (think VRBO, AirBnB, tourism, heck the list is endless). Insurance will take Center Stage in all businesses. Risk management is emerging as a core business activity going forward while businesses actively develop contingency plans and insurance services for their own protection.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/suzytaherian/2020/04/07/the-new-world-how-the-world-will-be-different-after-covid-19/#65942d555d15

Naomi Klein is the queen of hard-left economic thinkers. Her book "Shock Doctrine" was enormously influential. Now she's writing about "Corona Capitalism" and how the Shock Doctrine can be used for the good. "According to Milton Friedman, in a disaster, the government should avoid intervening in the harmony of the free market, which is supposed to function like a perfect scientific system... it should smash any regulatory supervision that shackles private business."

This "disaster capitalism" has been likened by conservatives to a gardener cutting back overgrown plants to the ground to encourage new economic growth (hello, Chauncey Gardiner). The Shock Doctrine was a reaction to what Friedman saw during the Great Depression: FDR using a disaster for good by creating myriad government agencies and programs to help citizens and kick-start a moribund economy.  Today, she sees an opportunity to create a Corona Capitalism that ensures a more fair and diversified economy and one that prepares us for the coming Climate Change:

https://theintercept.com/2020/03/16/coronavirus-capitalism/

Hoo Boy. OK, that will have to do for this post. The next one will be more generalized, taking a broader scan on the horizon for how our everyday lives will be affected, outside of the diminished economy...  And as you wait, consider having a tall glass of that special adult beverage, Dunning Kruger Kentucky Bourbon. Dunning Kruger... for folks who think they know a lot more than they really do! You know who they are...