The Twelve Stations Of The Plotz!

This summer has been so crazed! It's a time that is setting us up to decide if we as a nation proceed as a damaged-but-restorable democratic republic, or continue our amazing degradation into a banana republic without appeal.

It's doubly-rough because we are experiencing the most vulnerable moment for our country since a) the Revolution, b) the Civil War, or c) The Great Depression/World War II.  And it's pretty dang easy to become nearly-drowned by the constant fire-hosing of propaganda that spews forth 24/7 from the GOP/Trump/State Media complex. It's all designed to create disillusionment and apathy, so remember to just keep swimming!

It seems like we receive a daily pile of poo off-loaded onto our collective front yard by the great karmic dump truck. If God is a Trickster, then 2020 is explainable. If we exist in an amoral state of random chaos, this year may be explainable, too. But as bad as it has been, and it will get worse, most of it falls under the category, "Wow, that is some kind of stupid!!"

Submitted for your approval, here are twelve recent items which create responses like the twelve expressions evinced above by journalist Jonathan Swan while he gamely interviewed President Whatsisname. Any one of these items are dopey, dumb, weird and yet are kinda remarkable! Add 'em up and you get life in 2020!

1) The Jonathan Swan Interview With Trump. Sure, you've heard about it, and maybe you read some of the juicy quotes. What's great is how Trump can't conduct himself with a journalist who doesn't give a damn about whether he'll get "access" to White House sources ever again. I swear I heard T say "Wha-wa-whoa-wa-wha!" a couple of times. For a hugely entertaining five minute read, here is the Wonkette's analysis of this terrific moment:  https://www.wonkette.com/trumps-axios-interview-was-pretty-f-ckin-deranged-yeah  And, as always, read through some of the comments at the end!!

2) Kanye West For President. Admit it, when you first heard this, you thought it was about the release of a new album. Then, you thought that his savvy wife and her family saw the grift being generated by Trump & Co. and decided to get a slice. Those may be true. But it's really about the GOP trying to peel away some young and Black votes from Democrats. Here is the article about the GOP operatives behind Kanye's ballot struggles: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/republican-operatives-tied-trump-camp-working-kanye-west/story?id=72200390  Kanye or Trump - Vote Mental Illness in 2020!

3) Trump Wants To Be On Mt. Rushmore. Yeah, you right. What the hell? Oh, why not? He's floated the idea in the past and his staff recently asked South Dakota Governor Noem about it (as if she, a state governor, could order this up for a Federal Monument). For more, here's more: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/08/10/trump-likes-idea-adding-his-face-mt-rushmore-possible/3333312001/

4) Make-up!! Trump's physical appearance has always engendered snark, from his ridiculous enhanced ducktail to his girdled girth to his Frankenstein-like standing posture. But this year his makeup, always a thing since his Reality TV days, has become more pronounced and preposterous. He's gotta insist on applying his bronzed orange foundation himself, because anyone else would be fired. And that mask-line along his ear and hair is... something. Here are two examples: Everyday bad makeup and A different kind of mask. And when he adds a "glistener" it becomes like an ancient Greek bronze mask. What would Freud and Jung say? Would his sculpted mug on Mt. Rushmore be spray-painted orange?

5) FORE!! Trump likes to golf. A lot. And does so regularly on his own golf courses, at our expense, which requires a whole bunch of Federal tax dollars directed into his properties (over $105 million). Thus far, he's golfed about twice as much as Obama and about a putt's difference from Eisenhower's average. It appears he really enjoys playing during these days of pandemic and economic calamity and Senate-stalled legislation for relief to millions. Plus, he rampantly cheats like the blatant thief he has always been: https://golf.com/lifestyle/celebrities/how-why-president-trump-cheats-golf-playing-tiger-woods/

6) Those Late Afternoon Pressers. What were supposed to be daily progress updates on the nation's battle against the coronavirus immediately transformed into Trump Campaign Rallies, minus the adoring crowds of cretins. It worked for a while, getting him free campaign footage on all news programs each evening. But then he said too many stupid things (inject bleach, etc), and it went away. Now it's back, and so is His Stupidness. Yesterday, he suggested that the "1917 pandemic" ended World War II because so many soldiers became sick. (The pandemic lasted from 1918-1919 and did not end World War II. It didn't even end World War I.)

Some people are really using this fake form!

7) Resistance To Wearing Masks. It's a puzzler. Why are so many vehemently against wearing masks? Sure, Trump & Company went all out against masks earlier. But now, most GOP leaders are occasionally wearing them. Even Trump has been seen with one. But propaganda sticks hard with true believers, and that's what we have with Trumpanzees. Wide swaths of Trumpistan actively resist masks, even when their representatives contract COVID.

8) "Thank You, Sir..." After analyzing over 20,000 lies by the President, fact-checker Daniel Dale (and others) know when he's telling a whopper. One of his "tells" is using "Sir" in his anecdotes. Especially if it involves large, macho men openly weeping in his presence, thanking him for (fill in the blank). It's always made-up. This week's "Sir" moment came here (oh, and check out his Bronze Mask): "Thank you, sir, for giving us water for sinks."

9) Bill Barr and Mark Levin. Our hyper-religious, autocratic Attorney General/political operative took a load off to chat with the far-right media nut-job. They exchanged glowing thoughts about each other, spoke on how well things are going generally, and then... Barr called Black Lives Matter supporters "Bolsheviks" and "violent Antifas," liberals as intent on "tearing down the system," protestors as Fascists, and Democrats as trying to wrench away power because "it's their secular religion." Such a refined and reasoned conversation! He even said that T is an "excellent executive" making "well-vetted" decisions by "very high-caliber individuals." He goes on about T's work habits, "I've never seen such energy. He's always working." Wow.

10) Ted Cruz Tweet About People Needing Federal Relief. Millions of people who are unemployed, or underemployed, because of COVID are dependent on receiving subsidies from the Federal Government. The GOP says that providing such monthly stipends means dis-incentivizing the will to work. So they fail to work out a bill with the Democrats. Probable result - an imminent crash of evictions, homelessness, crime... and maybe more people protesting because it's their secular religion.
Senator Ted Cruz tweeted a particularly loathsome sentiment, which attracted appropriate pushback:
Ed Markey lights into Ted Cruz.

11) 38% Will Vote For Him, No Matter What. There is a near-complete Venn Diagram overlap of people who won't wear masks, and people who will vote for Trumplethinskin, no matter what. He could shoot their spouse or children or mother on Fifth Avenue, and it just wouldn't matter. It's an American pathology, although we've seen comparable phenomena elsewhere throughout history. Even if they see the truth, some people will never admit to being wrong.

12) An amazing, wicked and wonderful synopsis of this summer. This George Conway opinion piece delivers a far more ranging yet succinct summary of all the madness that's happened (and is happening) than I ever could. Plus, it's funny!! Please give it a read, you won't regret it.

And that's our round-up of plotz-worthy moments from the last several days! There were some others that didn't make the cut, like Zombie Cicadas and the Libertarian Party Presidential Candidate who was bitten by a possibly rabid bat. But there's always another post along the way....

Stay safe, sane and sanitized!

Becoming The Donner Party

Way back yonder in 1846 there was an infamous incident involving some westward pioneers seeking betterment by crossing the plains and mountains into California. It was a wagon-train group of 87 people that came to be known as The Donner Party. At first, they were queued towards the back among other groups heading out along The Oregon Trail. But unlike the other groups, The Donner Party made some really poor management decisions.

As they traveled, they were approached by a bamboozler who claimed knowledge of a special "cutoff" trail that would save them time and effort. With the promise of an easy transit, The Donner Party peeled off from the others on the Oregon Trail and headed towards its own road to perdition.

It didn't end well. After losing livestock, supplies and time while slowly transversing mountain ranges and deserts, The Donner Party became snowbound in the upper Sierra Nevadas. Their Native American guides perished, and having no food left, some members of the Donner Party ate them. Then other Party members who died were eaten. When local Native Americans approached with food, the Donner Party blasted away at the "wild injuns."

In the end, nearly half of the Party died. The number of those who were cannibalized has never been firmly established, but it seems likely it wasn't a few. The Donner Party became emblematic of bad choices and worse consequences.

All this serves to remind what Rush Limbaugh, the voice of Trumpism and Trump's GOP, said about how Americans need to sack up and stop falling apart because of the COVID crisis. We've been through tough times before, he said, and we need to adapt, like the Donner Party did:

Rush Limbaugh suggests we should eat each other.

"It’s just what was. They didn’t complain about it, because there was nothing they could do. They had to adapt. This is what’s missing. There seems to be no concept of adaptation. There seems to be no understanding in the Millennial generation that we can adapt to this, and that we’re going to have to."

As usual, the sheer magnitude of his ignorance (or bad faith) is stunning. But taking Rush at his bloviated word, he seems to equate "adapting" with "acquiescing" or "accepting" what COVID is doing to our country. His idea of "adapting" is to allow the disease to run its course, and we all need to just get over it. This, too, is the prime idea behind the Trump Administration's response. Deny it, belittle it, assign responsibility to others and then blame them. And wait for a miracle, because that's how they roll with their magical thinking approach to everything.

This defiance towards reality has informed nearly all of the Administration's actions, and the reactions by its GOP and media sycophants. Following a particularly stupid and deranged Presidential press appearance, an appalled Anderson Cooper asked CNN White House Reporter Jim Acosta whether there weren't people in the WH that could keep 45 from debasing the Presidency any further. Acosta replied in the negative:

"There are no adults to rein him in."

"We are down to Kool-Aid Drinkers and Next-of-Kin here at the Trump White House,"Acosta explained. Simply put, the President and GOP Leadership are surrounded by ass-kissers and bootlickers. There is no diversity of presentable ideas or debate on different directions. This monolithic subservience towards the Strong Man is indicative of the autocratic, banana republic we have become.

It's kinda like the Republican Party has become The Donner Party. Or even The Jim Jones Peoples Temple Party and their special blend of Kool-Aid. Both featured hapless people that obediently followed leaders who took them down the wrong trail.

Since Rush made these remarks, a few Republican state governors have chimed in with statements and actions that seem designed to let the virus run rampant while hoping for a vaccine or herd immunity (which may never happen).

Governor Kemp of Georgia is suing mayors like Atlanta's Keisha Lance Bottoms to stop their face mask requirements and limitations on public gatherings. In fact, he seeks to prevent them from talking about it at all. He seeks a gag order. 

Governor DeSantis of Florida wants public schools to open "at full capacity" next month. He also won't close gyms, because he feels they promote a lifestyle that shields from COVID. He has also fired a Public Health official for not manipulating state COVID statistics. He is Florida Man.

Governor Parsons of Missouri, too, wants public schools to open at full capacity next month. His rationale is close to Limbaugh's: It's inevitable, kids will get it. So let's go. Like many Republicans, he seems to think that because kids are more likely to survive, it's OK... but he doesn't seem to understand that they can transmit it to parents, grandparents, teachers, staff, blah blah blah.

It is kind of numbing, this willful ignorance from the GOP that surrounds us. It is a bit reminiscent of past failed political parties. The Vichy French. The Iraqi Baathists. The Nazis. The East German Communist Party. The Soviets. Officials would use a statement from the Party Strong Man and it would frame their reality, no matter how deranged it was.

Baghdad Bob doing his Kayleigh McEnany imitation

"Sometimes the point isn't to make people believe a lie, it's to make people fear the liar." In a really outstanding article written in The Atlantic, long-time Eastern Europe expert Anne Applebaum has contemplated today's GOP and compares it with how Soviet-controlled countries operated. It's fairly lengthy, but very much worth the time spent digging into it, one of the best articles of the year!

Here is just one of many, many relevant observations on why so many people who ought to know better are fine and even complicit with Trump and today's GOP:

"These kinds of lies also have a way of building on one another. It takes time to persuade people to abandon their existing value systems. The process usually begins slowly, with small changes. Social scientists who have studied the erosion of values and the growth of corruption inside companies have found, for example, that “people are more likely to accept the unethical behavior of others if the behavior develops gradually (along a slippery slope) rather than occurring abruptly,” according to a 2009 article in the Journal of Experimental Social Psychology. This happens, in part, because most people have a built-in vision of themselves as moral and honest, and that self-image is resistant to change. Once certain behaviors become “normal,” then people stop seeing them as wrong.

Yep! "It takes time to persuade people to stop seeing (corrupt officials' behavior) as wrong."  It's only been four years of Trump and his GOP, although it's been 25 years since Newt Gingrich effectively grabbed the GOP helm. Plenty of egregious statements and actions have since sloshed along the street gutter of our collective political memory towards the drain grate of history. The GOP has slowly slid towards the extreme right since the mid-1990's, "inoculating" its followers to accept the unacceptable.

Like suggesting, as Trump has, that the virus be left alone and run rampant while accommodating a mortality rate that would pass well over a million victims. In the end, there will be plenty of victims, but I do hope that the GOP takes up Rush's recommendation - and eats itself.

Please watch these incredible threads which are about what's happening in Portland, from the street perspective, in particular the role of the Portland Moms. Social Justice demonstrations have been happening there for 54 straight days. "The Wall of Moms" are trying to protect the protestors from the mysterious marked and unmarked militarized 'law enforcement' figures that Trump sent in. Most moms wear yellow and some hold up sunflowers - watch for this to become a real symbol of resistance going forward!

Both threads provide plenty of amazing short videos that depict an American tyranny whose rule through fraud has been exposed and must now rely on force:

Mike Baker's wild night with Portland protestors and Moms.  (From two nights ago.)

Mike Baker's wild night last night with Portland Moms and Dads! (From last night.)

Sergio Olmos and Moms singing "Hands Up Please, Don't Shoot Me" (From two nights ago.)

It's pretty much Over when you get suburban moms to participate in long-running social justice demonstrations. Trump's Department of Justice and Department of Homeland Security will continue to incite and provoke, seeking to create a political wedge for the upcoming election. But it won't work. The GOP took the wrong cutoff trail and is heading towards the political wilderness. It is going to start eating itself as it becomes the new Donner Party.

Looking Beyond The Horizon

Sometimes it feels like 2020 has become a compressed version of the entire 1960's. The details and circumstances are quite different, of course. But there is a similarly intense amount of societal pressure churning and building within the nation's Body Politic. The danger signs have been escalating in an alarmingly rampant manner over the last four years. And now we appear to be close to having a national stroke or heart attack, a complete breakdown.

We are experiencing a mammoth triple whammy: the COVID-19 health-socio-economic disaster, the Black Lives Matter/Racial Injustices Great Awakening, and a persistent form of Psychotic Disorder that is shared by 38% of this country.

And though it might be fun to get into the weeds and analyze each of these profound subject matters, let's do something different. Imagine, if you will, a time in the not too distant future where these issues are being resolved... what would such a timeline be like? Hmmm... I can see it now through my mystical eye:

After multiple unsuccessful attempts, a cheap, reliable and accessible COVID-19 vaccine is available. The recently restructured Obamacare with Public Option, and expanded Medicare/Medicaid programs helped deliver this game-changer to all corners of society. Legislation passed for new mandatory health standards in nursing homes, meat-packing facilities and prisons, among other person-intensive institutions. Home and community-based care has become more effective and prevalent, especially through new technologies. In general, preventative care and much-reduced insurance costs are now the norm.

The collective trauma of the virus lingers, with the knowledge that new ones may emerge anytime. The nation suffered from a series of rolling lockdowns, brought on by flares and outbreaks of the virus wherever guidelines were not enforced.

In fact, the after-effects of COVID have proven to be transformative across most sectors of the country. People continue to not trust other people in physical interactions. The bricks-and-mortar retail world is barely existent. Work-at-home created a sea change for commuters and their employers. As more people continued working from home, public transportation languished, but did not disappear.

Commercial real estate values plummeted. Home ownership in suburbs held fast, though sale prices diminished because of area foreclosures. Those who could afford to move away from urban centers did so, getting away from upclose density and interactions. Public schools have become a hybrid of online/home-schooling and traditional on-site experience. Infrastructure projects are scaled back because tax-revenue has been starved in a shrinking economy.

In fact, here in the U.S. and around the world, Life has become much slower than it had been just a few years before. There's a greater reliance on the "local" and not the "national." For example, the travel industry never really recovered, although modest local and regional vacations are still a thing. Airlines are used more for freight than people.

And while Cable and Streaming services have greatly benefited from stay-at-home guidelines, movie theaters stayed dark even after the virus could be treated. So did many other people-oriented Pop Culture and Fine Arts events. College and professional sports that survived underwent a radical change in presentation, leaving former fans supremely unsatisfied. The restaurant industry went cold, while home gardening warmed up.

Trust in the federal government has not yet been restored. So much damage was done by the Trump Administration and the Republican Party that it will take several more years of extensive, comprehensive reforms and electoral clean-up to clear the pervasive stink. However, elections since 2020 have featured success by Progressives and Left-of-Center Democrats. There has been a strong renewal in such values as Accountability, Expertise and Human Decency.

Supporters of The Orange One are still around, but their numbers, voices and influence are much diminished. Convictions of Trump officials continue to climb while remnants of the Trump Organization crash into bankruptcy. Following the disasters of 2020, the Trumpian tenets of the Republican Party are held in popular contempt. Fox News became a common target of lawsuits. Former sycophants were exposed as grifters. As a result, the GOP has attempted a series of political transformations, seeking to find a way back from the wilderness. But its core values were exposed as transparently corrupt and nihilistic; it exists as a permanent minority party.

Long-overdue action towards reforming the Judicial System, Police and Prisons has begun. Consumer protection against financial service providers and other predatory vendors has returned and been improved. And as the engines of Capitalism have slowed, the well-being of "essential workers" has accelerated. We've entered a time of reforming Capitalism, mitigating its ruthless tendencies and short-sighted bottom lines. Call it Human Capitalism, where the "invisible hand" is assisted by the informed hand of government policy intervention.

Movements like Black Lives Matter continue to shine a crucial spotlight on society's stubborn inequities. Smartphones remain as the most effective weapon against racism, bigotry and willful ignorance. Police and Fire Departments began hiring from within the communities they serve. And as the pie slice of White People becomes smaller in our American Pie, more minorities (and immigrants) see advancement in their socio-economic share and status. A stronger sense of respect and understanding towards all Americans has spread across the country, as progressive political victories mount.

OK, OK!! I better stop the visioning here before I get completely unglued and gooey. But there's more that needs to be said:

Overall, these "future years" show that though we become a slower, smaller world, we will become a better world. Our COVID experience has demonstrated that our previous way of life is not sustainable. And though we may continue to distance ourselves, as a people we arrive at a greater appreciation and need for each other.

The extreme fissures in our society won't be mended soon. But in the meantime there will be enough bridges built to patch together our fractured nation while a deeper healing takes hold.

Our country is rarely ever wholly united. It will be exceedingly difficult to succeed in uniting, without having a common enemy to rally against. But a common enemy exists and grows more powerful every day. It's an enemy that will challenge every person in our nation, and the world, much more so than our current set of crises. It will be the great conflict of our age, one that will fundamentally determine our way of life, our species and all future life on this planet.

Climate Change is the big one, the End Game, and our response to COVID is just a necessary practice run to get us ready. We fumble about in coordinating our sloppy state, national and international responses to the pandemic, to disappointing effect. As a nation and as a world community, we will need to tighten up our coordinations radically to face this relentless, borderless, civilization-crushing foe of our own making.

Such unparalleled world unity is required because Climate Change will be much more life-threatening to humans than COVID, and far longer lasting. Like the virus, it's a gathering phenomenon that threatens every one of us.

But we won't be able to wear masks and socially distance ourselves from drought, monsoons or early and late freezes. We can't develop a medical treatment for prolonged and withering triple digit heat, ruined crops and dwindling livestock. We won't have a vaccine for depleted water supplies, rising sea levels, massive human refugee movements and subsequent natural resource-driven warfare.

The lessons we learn from our struggles with COVID will determine if we will face the future successfully. And once we rid ourselves of our current White House and Senate "leadership" we can begin in earnest. It is not too late, but it will be if they succeed.

What I Learned At Last Week's BLM Marches

It happened last Monday. It seems to me that a distinct and remarkable change in the zeitgeist took place, a positive pulse issuing forth from The Force. Like we were bathed in a sudden blast of socially-aware solar wind particles from the sun. As if a mammoth bubble of cognition finally eased up from the Collective Unconscious into our shared waking perception of reality. It felt really powerful. Maybe you felt it, too.

The touchstone event, of course, took place in Lafayette Park, Washington, DC. The catalyst occurred the week before in Minneapolis. But the fuse has been burning for a very, very long time. I'm reminded of President Obama's commencement speech at Howard University in 2016. In it (and in similar statements) he spoke about the "fierce urgency of incremental change" and how it leads to sudden and overwhelming change.

We are experiencing that earthquake of sudden, significant change. The mainstreaming of Black Lives Matter is no overnight sensation. BLM has been slogging onwards since Trayvon Martin was murdered by George Zimmerman in 2013. Movements similar and sympathetic to BLM have toiled for decades. It's work and work and drudge and drudge and drip and drip and then something big happens. The indestructible dam bursts from a fatal series of cracks and fissures, unseen from the surface.

It happened this way when the Gay Marriage Legalization moment finally clicked with straight people. After years of dehumanizing intimidation, suffering, protests, and court actions, proponents of Gay Marriage cleared the breach. And when it did, most Americans said "Good." Oh sure, there are still bigoted knuckle-draggers and bible-thumpers who can't stand it. But they are in the distinct minority.

From that 2015 Supreme Court moment onwards, same-sex marriage suddenly achieved a normalcy in American society that belies the enormous and prolonged opposition leading up to it.

And now, thanks in large part to the ubiquity of Smartphones, a critical mass has been achieved for mainstream America to support the tenets of BLM. Horrible and plentiful instances of police brutality and police murders are flowing through society's lifestream. These videos and pictures are now a part of our accepted Collective Consciousness. They are driving this moment in our history.

Speaking of pictures and videos, I'm pleased to present my take on participating in three BLM marches last week!

Mrs. Daily Kibitz and I live in a small-ish town in the exurbs of Washington, DC.  It is a prosperous place and notable for its demographic diversity. Like most, we've been "staying at home" during the pandemic whenever possible. But as you may know, we have a history of political activism. Watching the events leading up to last Monday's Banana Republic horror-show has been frustrating. In healthier times, we'd have been at Lafayette Park. Getting gassed and being assaulted.

So it was a great relief to be able to participate in a mid-week local demonstration supporting Black Lives Matter. Folks were gathering at the local grocery store parking lot. And so off we went (it's a ten minute walk from the house).

When we arrived, there were about 20 people there, which is about 15 more than I expected. But more and more people walked up. Within minutes, there were a few hundred!! And then off we went on a march through some neighborhoods! Nearly everyone was wearing a mask. (Mrs. Daily Kibitz and I kept to the periphery in accordance with Social Distancing.) And all were highly spirited. "Say his name! George Floyd! Say her name! Breonna Taylor!" These and other chants echoed off of comfortable suburban homes along the way.

We paused at a local clearing to take a knee for 8 minutes and 47 seconds. So very quiet and so conscious of each second.

It was agonizing. Then, we stood and continued our procession (watch this brief fun video clip):

And then we all marched down the hill and up the street

We are so proud of our town.

By then, of course, the national protests had grown and were almost entirely peaceful. There was talk of a large protest in DC on Saturday, so Mrs. DK and I grabbed our face masks and headed out! We joined one of the several marches that were happening that day. We socially distanced ourselves into the line near the Vietnam Memorial. The march went past the State Department into George Washington University, and then along H street all the way over to "Black Lives Matter Plaza," the newly anointed street leading up to Lafayette Park.

Along the way, we paused a couple of times to quietly reflect:

And like the Small Town march, this one (though crowded) was "family-friendly." This fantastic photo by Mrs. DK captured a little girl providing her generation's support to the marching columns:

"By the time we got to Woodstock, we were half a million strong." Well, tens of thousands were already in Black Lives Matter Plaza when we arrived there. (Note the church where President Supreme Ruler hoisted his bible prop.) It was sweltering. And far too many people for us to feel safe, health-wise, so we split.

But as we walked back to our car, we encountered other marches, with thousands more, all heading towards Black Lives Matter Plaza. Even though the White House, Lafayette Park, the Ellipse and surrounding government buildings had been fenced off, the entire White House district was surrounded with peaceful protestors. Where were the looters? Where was the violence? Where was the dreaded Antifa? In a bunker somewhere? And I must say, the police presence was minimal. Could that be a reason why things were so relaxed and tranquil?

getty images

The next day, Sunday, we participated in another local march. It began at our high school and wound up at a major intersection, which we "liberated."

Please click below for a fun and very brief street-side view of our march. Keep an eye out for Mrs. DK and me!!

High Speed March Down Frederick Road

After a long march, we arrived at our destination: the intersection of 355 and 27, the crossroads for this area. The police had done a good job of clearing traffic along the way, and controlled the vehicle flow here in a safe and measured manner. It was wild to sit on the pavement in the middle of this highly-traveled spot. 8 minutes and 47 seconds.

Conspicuous in their absence at all these events were any MAGA heads. There were no counter-protesters. None. Perhaps they had been fearful of being attacked by the vicious Antifa that composes the vast majority of these crowds. Honestly, it's such a farce...

But in places like Whitefish, Montana there are plenty of MAGA supporters. Here is one of the greatest photos of the age. We have a hulking opponent to BLM, towering over a protester. He has been verbally abusive to this group, knocking their signs from their hands, bullying his way into their faces, yelling "F*** You!! F*** You!!" over and over. I'd show the video, but it's kinda nauseating.

But it's this photo here that gets it. He is abusing Samantha Francine. He has his fists balled up like he's ready to pound on her. She had been wearing sunglasses, but when he got up in her grill, she took them off. She recalled her late father's advice for such situations: "No matter what the threat, always look them in the eye so they have to acknowledge that you're human..."

photo by Grace Jensen

That's the bravery of a common hero. (Also, he was arrested for Disorderly Conduct minutes later. Yay!) It's moments like that, and this image below, that have turned the country's thinking around:

Meanwhile, where are our leaders? Our real leaders are on the street. Well, here is one hilarious take on what was happening this last weekend to one "leader" down in the Trumperbunker:

White House Bunker video

Finally, we have the great David Byrne performing Janelle Monae's powerful call to action, "Hell You Talmbout." Say Their Names! I'll never forget seeing her perform this at the first/best Women's March in DC, 2017. Absolutely riveting as she cooly gazed out over the crowd of over half-million, saying "... Hello, Future."

Draining The COVID Fever Swamp

Look out, below! The lockdowns are becoming looser, which may be good. But also, it may be bad. It's good for the short term economy and may save a number of on-the-brink businesses and jobs. It's bad because opening up densely populated areas too soon will very likely cause a resurgence of the virus. And then we go through everything all over again, with gusto! Yay.

(This reminds me of a COVID joke I saw -
"The spread of COVID-19 is dependent on two things:
1 - the density of the population, and
2 - the density of the population.")

Now I know what you're thinking: "Wait, Daily Kibitz, what gives? Your last edition claimed that this next one would deal with how COVID will shade every bloomin' aspect of our lives going forward! The economic portrait you drew was enough to search desperately for silver linings, so where are they?"

OK, I get it. But before getting into my promised visionary take on what the post-COVID world might look like, I kept thinking about the epistemological traits of the virus itself. As we learned in the previous Kibitz post, the post-COVID world might begin in a couple of months... or a couple of years. It depends on the still-mysterious virus and how societies react to it. And while there is cause for optimism (a Korean or Israeli vaccine? Reliable antibody tests?) it's good to temper it with an appropriate amount of cautious skepticism. Otherwise, we march into an unfamiliar black forest under a moonless night with only blind faith to orient us.

So let's take this opportunity to dig in a little to better understand what kind of pickle we are in.

Here is an interesting set of charts that follow the infection rates of countries world-wide, and states within the U.S. Click on it and then you can pass your cursor over any nation or state and see its history. The best charts are the ones at the bottom that adjust the infection rate per million population:

https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

Yep, that's some great information! A number of plateaus, but not many dips. What the hell is Israel doing that's so effective? Big clue: Research at places like the Weizmann Institute of Science!! And this terrific article in Haaretz says it all regarding Israeli researchers' consistent focus and caution while balancing aggressive experimentation:

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-what-we-did-right-israeli-doctors-explain-how-they-beat-coronavirus-1.8849374

Someday, stories like that will be a part of a great book and movie. (TL;DR - don't take hydroxychloroquine!!)

Prefer a spreadsheet for your analysis? Here ya go:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?utm_campaign=homeAdvegas1?%20%3Ca%20href=

Yes, according to this data, as of Friday, USA has over 97,000 confirmed COVID fatalities. If we were ghoulish enough to line up victims head to foot in a single line, it would stretch over 110 miles. We'll surely hit 100K by Monday, Memorial Day. And let's not think too much about the unconfirmed fatalities, which may account for the unusually high number of deaths in hard-hit states.

OK, here is a fine article produced by ProPublica. They interviewed the front line public health heads of nations succeeding with COVID and their economies. Their aggregated takeaway is wise:

https://www.propublica.org/article/coronavirus-advice-from-abroad-7-lessons-americas-governors-should-not-ignore-as-they-reopen-their-economies

"We all have to live with Coronavirus for at least a year and probably 2 - 3 years," says one expert. That's the reality. But to squash it down to non-threatening levels, these experts recommend state governors take these actions:

-- Build an army of contact tracers to identify and limit the virus carriers.
-- Be prepared to test constantly while striving to keep the new positive cases test rate under 5%.
-- Isolate people with suspected infections from their families.
-- Protect health workers (and keep them coming back to work, because it's "game over" otherwise).
-- Normal is not the goal. We'll need masks, temperature checks, social distancing, etc. for awhile.
-- Keep vigilant for a Second Wave of infections.
-- Clear and transparent communications about the disease and treatment is critical.

But what about Herd Immunity, I hear some of you say! Why can't we simply "open 'er up" and let the chips fall where they may? Aren't most COVID victims ancient or have pre-existing conditions? Aren't we all going to get COVID at some point anyway? Don't we need to consider the acceptable number of deaths versus the demise of our economy and lifestyle? And aren't church-goers shielded by the blood of Christ?

Yes, I hear all that, often. It's understandable that many people are becoming desperate as their rent becomes due and they see their debit card denied. This is the biggest mess since The Great Depression. But magical thinking won't help. Understanding the situation better will. So let's check out this engaging and excellent article on COVID and Herd Immunity:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/without-a-vaccine-herd-immunity-wont-save-us/

The writers present an illness they call "Fictionitis" and ask you to determine its parameters. Using the easy interactive choices, you can create the R0 (transmittable rate), the Mortality Rate, and the Immunity Duration. Try it, it's fun and educational!! All these choices are required in figuring a communicable disease's Herd Immunity threshold.

Currently, experts' best-guess estimate for achieving COVID Herd Immunity is when the virus goes through at least 70% of the population... maybe up to 90%. That means at least 230 million Americans need to get infected before achieving this threshold. Currently, we have 1,642,000 cases, or 0.5% of the population.

Even then, crossing the threshold doesn't mean the end of a disease like COVID. "It only slowly goes down, and on its way down, it infects another third of the population. If you drive a car and suddenly you switch it off, it doesn't stop instantly."

How long would COVID antibody immunity last? According to the article, no one really knows. Patients with similar coronaviruses like SARS and MERS have immune cells present in their bodies for years. But there are researchers who draw parallels to HIV, which creates huge loads of antibodies in patients but doesn't stop it.

"Our bodies could stop short of completely killing off the virus in the first place, allowing it to lie dormant and reemerge later like HIV. It could evolve enough that our old antibodies won't work anymore, whether we got them from natural exposure or vaccine. This is what seasonal flu does, and a part of why we need a new vaccine every year. Or the immune response we produce could just fade too quickly, making us susceptible to reinfection." We don't yet know if "COVID immune" people  could become re-infected, like we see with HIV immune cells.

In determining the fatality rate, accurate tests are essential, including serological tests that detect antibodies. The higher the case count, the lower the fatality rate. Now for comparison, seasonal flu has a 0.1 fatality rate. And from what the authors can conclude from New York City as of mid-May, COVID may have hit 21% of its residents. This places NYC's fatality rate at 1.1%, or 10 times deadlier than the seasonal flu.

If this fatality rate is accurate and plays out across the country, along with an unmitigated "open 'er up" Wild-West style of no restraints and all-in with crossing the Herd Immunity threshold, we can expect a floor of 2 1/2 million deaths. Recall we've only reached a number of 0.5% infected patients on our way to a projected 70%+ population threshold figure. And we cross the 100,000 deaths mark  sometime this weekend.

So whaddaya do? In the immediate end, the uncertainties of this virus remain the biggest obstacle we face. I think most people will continue to err on caution's side and observe CDC guidelines. But there will be abundant crowds of Magical Thinkers who believe that the virus will not affect them.

These folk need to listen to Owen Filer. He's 100 years old. He's been through a few world crises. He thinks this is the worst. But he's not scared. In fact, he laughs a lot. A sharper centenarian you'll never see. He's really great:

If we can live to be 100 years old and display the wit and poise of Owen Filer, we should be so lucky.

That's it for now! Next time, my visionary take on our future, for real...

What Will It Be Like When We Get There? (Part One)

Wowzers. Here we are, huddling apart in our socially distant fox holes, waiting for the "All Clear" signal to ring forth. You know, the moment when the Good Guys let everyone know it's safe to come on out because the enemy has been defeated. We did it! And life can go back to normal. The End.

With all of the extraordinary events that have transpired since the 2016 election campaign, I can safely say that our lives will not go back to "normal" because that fanciful state of being has been M.I.A. for some time. We've been living in a whirlwind since well before the pandemic hit. But now that the virus has got us in its insidious grip, we all look to better days ahead. What will our world be like when it's All Clear?

Our once-in-a-lifetime circumstances have created a societal tableau featuring the best and worst of what our country has to offer. Most folks are behaving quite responsibly during this national emergency by following CDC and state-mandated guidelines. It ain't easy, and many are really getting hit hard in the wallet. Others couldn't care less and some actively engage in provocative exhibitions that would probably kill them if they were black. Trying to enforce such simple rules as wearing face masks in stores is met with murder.

And while we wait for our deranged President Mean Girl to work through his daily "chaos of peeves, whims, hallucinations and all-around assholery" (thanks, Thomas Pynchon) let's consider how things may play out from a few different perspectives.

Because we are confronted with a crisis that has ignited multiple, larger crises (like how an atom bomb is used to detonate a hydrogen bomb), The Daily Kibitz will look at various ways that the virus may affect us all as we look for cover and stumble into the more-or-less immediate future. And on into the more distant one.

Everything will be based on this, from The Atlantic:

The Atlantic and the four timelines.

Yep, so much depends on a red vaccine wheelbarrow. Going forward, we will develop a treatment and/or a vaccine. Or, MAYBE acquire herd immunity at great mortal cost. Or, something worse: the virus mutates too quickly to properly develop a vaccine or acquire herd immunity and we maintain continuous lockdown. Or, it just goes away, "like a miracle."

Timeline #1: One to two months. Given this article appeared a month ago, this possibility is already obsolete. No treatment, no cure. Nope, not even injected/ingested bleach and UV lights.

Timeline #2: Three to four months. A treatment, not a cure, might be identified that can ease symptoms. But this timeline all depends on testing, which the U.S. is failing at, spectacularly.

Timeline #3: Four to twelve months. Maybe summer seasonality will slow it down and give us time to better understand and treat it. Or maybe it just doesn't slow, because of easing lockdowns and no seasonality (we'll know by late June).

Timeline #4: 12 to 18 months - or longer. No one expects a vaccine before spring of 2021, and it's more likely to be in the fall of 2021. In fact, there are some who suggest that if our lockdowns fail, rampant COVID could mean herd immunity; if it's possible, it begins to kick in by late autumn of 2021. It's a huge and costly "if".

Economic Outlook:

For the U.S. economy, according to the CNBC Fed Survey of economists, a "plurality" say we won't be fully restored until sometime in the 2nd quarter of 2022. The influential Mark Zandi says mid-decade. These projections are all dependent upon a vaccine and a couple more trillion dollars injected, like disinfectants, into the economy by the federal government.

Here's a piece by the Chair of Political Economy at the quite conservative American Enterprise Institute.  He takes a very dim view of opening society without a COVID-19 vaccine. "A Darwinian experiment to invite global herd immunity is unthinkable because it would entail untold millions of deaths." Sounds reasonable... and then he goes on:

https://www.nbr.org/publication/the-new-normal-thoughts-about-the-shape-of-things-to-come-in-the-post-pandemic-world/

He says that the Federal Reserve concludes the net worth of the bottom half of US citizens was lower in 2019 than it was in 1989... by one-third! Since then, of course, we have COVID-19 and that net worth has plummeted further down the abyss.

Without a vaccine, he sees "rolling lockdowns... a succession that presses economic performance severely in countries all around the world simultaneously." Our world economy structure will be chopped back. "It may be more difficult to convince a working majority that a globalized economy and other international entanglements actually work in their favor... we need an agenda/formula to generate prosperity for all."

He continues to see international lockdowns, blocks of travel and immigration, and a rise in Economic Nationalism along with diminished expectations of Globalization.  Glitchy, gummed-up  "international supply chains" will be regarded as less desirable, giving rise to domestically resourced chains, even though the costs of productions are higher and profits lower.

This scenario plays into the Steve Bannon and Steven Miller vision of the creative destruction of governance institutions in order to rebuild the nation into a whole new authoritarian order. Their shared long term goal: A shrinking labor force via aging demographics and a No Immigrants Allowed border block. Although they are intensely racist and stupid, this has been a goal of the Trump Administration.

The folks at The Bulwark are the sort that used to be the GOP before it became infected with the Racist Hyperpartisan Crazy virus. Here's their take on what lies ahead:

https://thebulwark.com/we-cannot-reopen-america/

No surprise, all future economic activity is dependent on the vaccine. And though some business sectors are unaffected and may even benefit from the pandemic, enough sectors will decline or collapse, sending severe recession/depression shock waves pulsing throughout the domestic and global economies.

Las Vegas is listed as an example for affected business sectors. When it reopens, w/o a vaccine or treatment, who is going to come? True believers and gambling addicts: just a trickle of the former reliable flow.  How about a local dinner and a movie? Any activity requiring physical interaction or close proximity to others is doomed. Such a "pandemic mindset" will continue with most consumers until a safe, reliable and cheap way is introduced to protect everyone.

"The list goes on and on: Dine-in restaurants, coffee shops, hotels, theme parks, concert venues, convention centers, shopping malls, museums, libraries, schools, colleges—every one of these businesses is headed into a nuclear winter that has nothing to do with stay-at home orders."

Their point is that many of these kinds of business may have been headed toward oblivion within a few years anyway... but COVID is the catalyst for instant economic change.

According to the Brookings Institution, broad economic transformation is already underway. Their take is a bit contrary to the American Enterprise Institute folk. In their view, national "Me First" responses in the international scene is self-evidently dead.  Replacing this Nationalism is an existential need to ensure multilateral responses for future cross-border crises like pandemics (and Climate Change) are effectively managed.

"Aggregate demand isn't falling everywhere. But all economic activity that involves physical interaction, both production and consumption, are imploding. Meanwhile, physically disjointed activities are exploding (like Amazon, or any other business with digital interaction). Instead of simply pouring trillions into maintaining business sectors that are suddenly obsolete, a fraction should be invested into this new economic infrastructure.

"It's like Fire Insurance. It's not money wasted all the years you pay in. It's a precaution, in case the house does go up in flames... like it is now."

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2020/03/27/awakening-in-the-post-pandemic-world/ 

Another conservative business voice, Forbes magazine, agrees that what once was will no longer be. Global supply chains will transform into domestic supply chains. U.S. companies won't trust their product flow from one foreign country... or anywhere outside the U.S. They will set up new, diversified and local sources for supply chain business.

In-store shopping and commercial real estate will flatline while everything adapts to the on-line experience - and stays adapted. Access and ability to work and learn online is now more vital than ever. "Home Bias" will increase dramatically. "We perceive higher risk the further away the threat is from us... we have a favorable bias/perception of lower risk for what is closer to home. Investors are likely to revert to more investing closer to home, where proper due diligence can be conducted."

Such loss of trust will take years to regain. Moreover, any business that depends on strangers will suffer (think VRBO, AirBnB, tourism, heck the list is endless). Insurance will take Center Stage in all businesses. Risk management is emerging as a core business activity going forward while businesses actively develop contingency plans and insurance services for their own protection.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/suzytaherian/2020/04/07/the-new-world-how-the-world-will-be-different-after-covid-19/#65942d555d15

Naomi Klein is the queen of hard-left economic thinkers. Her book "Shock Doctrine" was enormously influential. Now she's writing about "Corona Capitalism" and how the Shock Doctrine can be used for the good. "According to Milton Friedman, in a disaster, the government should avoid intervening in the harmony of the free market, which is supposed to function like a perfect scientific system... it should smash any regulatory supervision that shackles private business."

This "disaster capitalism" has been likened by conservatives to a gardener cutting back overgrown plants to the ground to encourage new economic growth (hello, Chauncey Gardiner). The Shock Doctrine was a reaction to what Friedman saw during the Great Depression: FDR using a disaster for good by creating myriad government agencies and programs to help citizens and kick-start a moribund economy.  Today, she sees an opportunity to create a Corona Capitalism that ensures a more fair and diversified economy and one that prepares us for the coming Climate Change:

https://theintercept.com/2020/03/16/coronavirus-capitalism/

Hoo Boy. OK, that will have to do for this post. The next one will be more generalized, taking a broader scan on the horizon for how our everyday lives will be affected, outside of the diminished economy...  And as you wait, consider having a tall glass of that special adult beverage, Dunning Kruger Kentucky Bourbon. Dunning Kruger... for folks who think they know a lot more than they really do! You know who they are...