The Real State Of The Union

Last week, the President delivered the State Of The Union address to Congress and the nation. As most SOTUs go, it was forgettable, as most are. It was memorable for things like the President clapping for himself numerous times through the speech. And for being the third longest SOTU ever. And for not being the highest rated, ever.

The content of the speech varied and wobbled wildly, much like how the Administration has handled itself this past year. As expected, much of the claims made lacked veracity, according to PolitiFact:

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2018/jan/30/fact-checking-donald-trumps-2018-state-union-speec/

But the President managed to deliver the speech in his finest flat teleprompter-reading cadence. He pointed to the usual cadre of audience "hero" props. If he could have wrapped himself in the flag, he would have. And everyone marched out of the Capitol with their pre-determined Talking Points.

Two days later, nobody remembered anything about the SOTU. Because the Real State Of The Union was about to be delivered to the nation, courtesy of the POTUS, Devin Nunes (R-Kompromat) and his House Intelligence Committee (quite the oxymoron), Fox News/Hate Radio and a gazillion Russian bots.  This Top Secret memo was so hot that Trump had cleared it for public release without having the Intelligence Community and the FBI vet it, or have the Democratic minority offer their own analysis. The People needed to read it to draw their own conclusions!

And so it was on Friday morning, after a hyper-frenzied media anticipation and feverish ballyhoo that exceeded a combination of the Star Wars reboots and a Royal Wedding Announcement, that the Nunes Memo was unleashed. "100 times worse than Watergate!" railed Seb Gorka, late of the White House, in a typical tweet that captured the essence of thousands of other GOP/Russian bot expressions of preemptive outrage. This was the document that would bring down the crooked FBI, the biased Department of Justice, the hated Mueller investigation, the entire Democratic Party, Hip-Hop as we know it, Justin Bieber, and the Designated Hitter Rule.

Then everyone read it. "It's like reading the work of an underachieving 1L law student," said one grumpy legal expert. That was the kindest expression heard among a slew of astonished authorities who had girded themselves for something that would rock institutional foundations and "let justice be done though the heavens fall!" What had been advertised as the Holy Grail for Trumpers turned out to be a leaky and swamped lifeboat for them to grab onto while the seas get rougher. It highlights the Investigated seeking to control the Investigation.

For those who want to dig into the details, here are a couple of excellent pieces that really get to the heart of the Memo. John Schindler is a conservative veteran of the Intelligence Community. He is not impressed one little bit, and his take on it all is the best overall synopsis around:

http://observer.com/2018/02/devin-nunes-memo-disappoints-fails-to-cool-russia-investigation/

Another conservative, former prosecutor/Whitewater investigator Paul Roszenweig, can hardly believe his eyes:

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/02/02/the-nunes-memo-makes-no-sense-216928

The money quote: "Perhaps even more significant is how the memo tries to bury the admission deep in the document that the entire FBI counterintelligence investigation of Russian influence was not triggered by the Steele dossier. Instead, as the memo admits only in its final paragraph, it was information about another Trump campaign adviser, George Papadopoulos, and his meetings that began the inquiry." 

As much as Trump and the GOP try to tar the Mueller Investigation, their disinformation efforts ("dezinformatsiya" for those following the old KGB playbook) have not yet expanded beyond the Kool-Aid Drinkers that comprise 35% of American voters. And it is curious that so many in the GOP have doubled-down, going "all-in" to defend Trump by way of defending this guy:

Carter Page represents a very strange hill for the GOP to decide they will fight or die upon. He has basically admitted to being a Russian "advisor". He's been in the sights of the FBI since 2013, when they discovered he was being recruited by Russia to spy. His many movements back and forth to Russia, on his own and as a representative of the Trump campaign, certainly merit FBI attention.

So what does this all really mean?

One big clue happened this last week. While DC's political punditry was in full riot mode regarding the Nunes Memo, a big deal set to happen never did: the Russia Sanctions were allowed to lapse. Yes, the same Russia Sanctions for meddling in our 2016 elections, the ones voted on 419 - 3 in the House and 98 - 2 in the Senate. The Sanctions for activities that the Trump Administration constantly deny ever happened. These Sanctions, designed to inflict punishing economic pain on Russia, are not going to be enacted.

It's always about Russia. Of all the nations in the world, Russia is on Trump's Bucket List. He has made a real Presidential career out of insulting any number of world leaders, countries and even continents - except Vladimir Putin and Russia. He has sought to back out of alliances and treaties that serve as bulwarks against Russia. He goes out of his way to placate Putin at any opportunity. It is really, really strange.

But what if it isn't strange at all? What if the FBI/IC are on the right track with this investigation? What if the Trump Campaign, and Trump himself, were fully-knowing partners with hostile Russia and Wikileaks in derailing the 2016 election? What if Russia was trying to use their influence on Trump, an "asset" from the late 1980's onwards, to destabilize the American electoral process? What if there was an enormous amount of "kompromat" they have on him and his family -- Russian mob money, Russian sex tapes of underage Russian girls, underage European girls from his Trump Modeling days, money laundering schemes that pulled him out of bankruptcy from way back.... what if any of these long-rumored stories are true?

And what if the more recent rumored story is true: the RNC (Republican National Committee) and other Republican PACs unwittingly accepted a whole bunch of dirty Russian money. It was easy to do. The Citizens United court case opened the flood gates for unlimited amounts of campaign money. Is it all kosher? Oh, Ha Ha. They now know it and will do anything to keep from being caught. And what about the RNC emails that Russia possesses, compliments of Wikileaks?

If true, it's the Double Death for the Republican Party - a President with Russian kompromat, and Republican leadership with Russian kompromat. Think about it. Why would Devin Nunes be doing what he's doing, especially after he had recused himself from all House Intelligence Committee Russian Investigation proceedings? Why would Speaker of the House Paul Ryan be so willing to give the Nunes Memo the green light without ANY vetting by FBI or the IC? Why is there such unified silence from the Republican Party whenever any Trump/Russia story pops up?

It's all a Big Question Mark, and it's the Real State Of Our Union.