The time between Veterans Day and next year's Baseball Season Opener will be remembered as Donald Trump's Terrible, Horrible, No Good and Very Bad End of His Presidency. And though there will be times when President Screamy von Poutface and his sleazy sycophants seem to be gaining the upper hand, he will be relentlessly hammered into submission from a variety of circulating fronts.
Let's examine how this proceeds...
IMPEACHMENT. Right, this is obvious and definitely will be happening, 100%. Ever since the news broke two months ago regarding the curious phone call Trump made to Ukrainian President Zelensky, an intractable avalanche of impeachable evidence has been piling up. I won't bore you with the details, except that the basis for Impeachment is firmly established and is growing.
Public hearings start next week. This should last into December. Articles of Impeachment will be presented for a House vote before Christmas. A Senate trial will begin sometime in January. It could last for several weeks, depending on the number of Articles approved and the witnesses to be called. And because Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will establish the trial rules, the Dems need to work hard to avoid his obstacles.
Sometime between the Ides of March and Opening Day, the Senate will have voted. Trump will be acquitted, probably in a nakedly fact-free and partisan fashion, although there will be a few Republican defections. It will be close.
But that doesn't matter. He will be royally hosed. For why that is, let's look at what else is happening, apart from the Impeachment drama. Some of the following will simply pester the President. But others could debilitate. (Note: any of these that are Federal Department of Justice investigations will likely be hampered or delayed by Attorney General Bill Barr. However,
he has his own difficulties ahead. When he is gone, these investigations will proceed.)
The Unredacted Grand Jury Testimony from the Mueller Report. There are lots of juicy items here. Not to be forgotten are the 10 specific Trumpian events that were highlighted as Obstruction of Justice material. There will be oh so much more. These instances can be used to prosecute Trump and allies after he leaves the Presidency. Also, some secret memos obtained via FOIA lawsuit already have been released.
They don't look good for Team Trump at all. Judge Beryl Howell ruled to release all GJ testimonies to the House Judiciary Committee. Status: Release is stayed, pending appeal.
The Mazar accounting firm. Trump's financial records are held by this firm. They have been ordered to turn over everything, including taxes, to the House Oversight Committee. Now Trump's
lawyers are preparing an appeal to the Supreme Court. Should be interesting.
Deutsche Bank and Capital One. Following subpoenas from the House Financial Services and Intelligence Committees, Deutsche "and others" handed over thousands of documents. These involve Trump and his adult children. Since then,
Deutsche revealed it had some of their tax returns, and would wait for a court order to send everything else to the House. Status: on appeal with the Federal appellate court in NYC.
Emoluments Clause To paraphrase Chico Marx, there ain't no such thing as a Sanity Clause, but there is an Emoluments Clause to the Constitution. This involves
the unconstitutional payments to Trump from foreign entities staying at Trump properties, like his DC hotel and Mar-a-lago. Also involved is the question of compensation to Trump by the Federal government. Three lawsuits against him are in the Federal appellate court pipeline. Two of them will see
some action next month.
Roger Stone's witness tampering and Lying to Congress trial The circus is in town here in DC. Stone's trial started yesterday and
it's already wild. Why is it important? It implicates the President with Wikileaks, stolen emails and Russia's involvement in the 2016 campaign. And much more might be revealed with the release of some unredacted testimony from the Mueller Report that is being used as prosecution's evidence.
Stormy Daniels and Karen McDougal and Michael Cohen and David Pecker Wow, what a Plato's Retreat combo! The SDNY investigation into Trump's hush-money payments to two former paramours was suddenly "concluded" this summer, prolly by Bill Barr. But Manhattan D.A. Cy Vance has
subpoenaed the Trump Organization for lotsa financial records. And the House Judicial Committee was poised to investigate last month, but its docket was cleared because of the silly Ukrainian business.
It will proceed later.
Jean Carroll, Summer Dervos defamation suits, and the 25 sexual assault accusers These women are not vanishing from TrumpWorld. Carroll, who accused Mushroom Man of sexual assault, has sued him for defamation. So has "The Apprentice" contestant, Summer Dervos, who recently established
via phone records that Trump was where she claimed he was when he was. As for the others, well, here's an update:
https://www.businessinsider.com/women-accused-trump-sexual-misconduct-list-2017-12
Inauguration Committee corruption One of the least known scandals involves Trump's Inauguration Committee. Lots of questions about the huge amount of monies raised versus the not so huge monies spent. Where did it all go? Who donated? No foreign money is allowed!! The SDNY feds have been
going over thousands of documents, but it's possible that Bill Barr's coverup hand is at play here.
Trump taxes and IRS Yet another variation of on a theme. But this
involves an IRS whistleblower who claims that "political appointees" prevented a proper audit of Trump's taxes. Hello, Steve Mnuchin?
Trump Foundation A New York
judge announced today that Trump & his kids need to pony up $2 million to various non-profits because of their fraudulent use of the family foundation. It's not much, but it's something. It should be hugely humiliating to them all, but they are sociopaths, so there is that.
Saudi Arabia -- nuclear program for sale, MBS/Kushner and Khashoggi
Oh jeez, Turkey knew we gave the green light to arrest (and then kill) Jamal Khashoggi? And then used this info as blackmail to get U.S. troops out of their way in Syria? What a
spectacular speculative stew!! Well, who knows? But there seems to be a ring of truth there. And though Trump is a key player in
all these shenanigans, the main actor is Boy Wonder-In-Law Jared Kushner. His BFF, Saudi ruler MBS, helped secure the miracle billion-dollar loan that saved Kush's bacon with his 666 5th Ave. building. There is so much juice here that it will be impossible not to have various investigative entities circle like sharks.
Hoo Boy! I had to stop because there are so many other scandals out there I couldn't breathe anymore. Suffice to say, the President will have his non-Impeachment hands full through 2020. It will all make him an appealing candidate for re-election.
So now that we have a glimpse of why the avalanche is so big and wild, let's consider where it is headed. Taking the Senate Trial and the barrage of other investigations into consideration, here are my best guesses:
1) An acquitted President spends most of his time fighting off the on-going barrage of high-exposure legal battles. His base still adores him, but it is not as large as before. And the Independents of Suburbia are beyond soured. His approval ratings bounce between 25% - 30%. He is radioactive and doesn't become the GOP's 2020 standard-bearer. He stays on through his term, but his role as President is radically diminished, a figurehead.
2) A convicted President is removed by April. VP Pence becomes President... unless evidence shows he is involved with this toxic Ukrainian goulash, too.
He might very well be. If he goes too, huh. Okay, you want some
crazy, well here's some
crazy: Trump goes, Pence goes and Pelosi is given the keys to the Oval Office. But she doesn't take it! She knows it could lead to violence from an unstable segment of society. Instead, she works out a backroom deal with the GOP to create a "caretaker" administration, helmed by acceptable "Never Trumpers". She remains Speaker of the House, with her heel on the GOP's neck.
3) Before the Senate Trial ends, Trump suddenly resigns - a bolt from the blue. Rumors abound: Ongoing health problems (this is probably legitimate). Didn't want to be convicted. Didn't want to be acquitted with overwhelming evidence, crippling his political life. Again, a Pelosi-led deal is forged in the background: Get the fuck out of Dodge right now and a Barr-less Department of Justice won't go after you for oodles of charges. He takes the deal and splits, setting himself up as a go-to Fox News "I'm The Victim" guy for years to come.
Woof. Well, the future is unknowable, mostly. However, The Daily Kibitz is doubling down on its
past prediction that this will all end in tears for Trump, his family, his businesses and the GOP. People are going to prison. Lives and careers will be ruined. Businesses will be destroyed. Fortunes will be lost. Doors may even be pried open a bit to show us the furtive, corrupt world of Dark Money. International Crime Organizations and their Nation-State hosts might be better understood. What a fascinating time to be alive as our society slowly, but surely, changes its collective consciousness and develops better self-awareness.
Now, this doesn't mean the Dems are going to win Presidency in 2020. They can really screw that up. Watch out for a Trump-less GOP ticket of, oh, Nikki Haley and Tom Cotton (or some variation thereof) to power through the hidebound Electoral College. Trump may be gone, but the political mindset that put him there will still exist, and will be harnessed again. There is still a potent Last Hurrah left in the GOP. But the Dems will win both houses of Congress. They will be a strong check against the GOP Executive and Judicial branches. Meanwhile, the Trump & Co. revelations, along with state (and some Federal) prosecutions, will continue past 2020. They will continually erode the GOP's appeal to Independents. By Inauguration Day, 2025, it's a Blue Sky White House and Congress going forward.
Unless. Unless... Here is David Frum's warning from his remarkably prescient March, 2017 article,
"How Donald Trump Could Build an Autocracy in the U.S."
Trump and his team count on one thing above all others: public indifference. “I think people don’t care,” he said in September when asked whether voters wanted him to release his tax returns. “Nobody cares,” he reiterated to 60 Minutes in November. Conflicts of interest with foreign investments? Trump tweeted on November 21 that he didn’t believe voters cared about that either: “Prior to the election it was well known that I have interests in properties all over the world. Only the crooked media makes this a big deal!”
What happens in the next four years will depend heavily on whether Trump is right or wrong about how little Americans care about their democracy and the habits and conventions that sustain it. If they surprise him, they can restrain him.
OK, let's surprise him!!
