Nearly three weeks into its tenure and the Obama Administration is being characterized as having a Life-or-Death moment. It is true that the Stimulus/Recovery bill that faces Congress will be important for our nation's economy. But really... three weeks and it's Political Existentialism time?
By all accounts this bill is flawed. It's too big. It's not big enough. Too many spending projects. Too much tax cuts. It's tilted toward a medium-term recovery. There are too many short-term throwaways. The bipartisan criticisms go on and on, and the more the opposites reflect against each other, the more I kinda like this bill.
So what happens next? We get to see the Obama Road Show again and recall the powers of this persuasion. We get to experience the intransigence of a newly-"principled" Republican party who sense political opportunity while the country circles the drain. And we understand anew the enormous difficulty of achieving true bipartisanship and the art of compromise in an era of toxic and scorched earth politics. A unanimous House Republican "no" vote says business as usual in that wing of Congress. Three Republican senators are willing to cross over ... it's a start.
A prediction, as long as the imminent Death of the Obama Administration is being openly discussed on the airwaves: the Stimulus/Recovery bill gets passed, goes through torturous negotiations in House/Senate committee, Obama signs it and declares victory for the country and "bipartisanship".
The effects of the legislation will be fairly minimal. Our economy will slide faster into Great Depression-style sickness. Democrats/Obama will try anew a Government-led push, say in early 2010. Huge Republican pushback. With the wretched economy as a backdrop and perhaps 20% unemployment rate as a motivator, the voting electorate gives the mid-term elections to the Democrats. This puts much more pressure on the Republicans to demonstrate their viability - and they respond by digging in their heels even moreso.
It's "ALL IN" for the 2012 elections with Obama beating Romney and the Republicans are sent to a sad trek into the Wilderness for at least a generation. Obama and the Democrats spend the next four years picking up the pieces and transforming the economy and society into the 21st Century.
You heard it here first.
It's so difficult understanding how our domestic and international economies operate. Here is an excellent, hilarious website that captures the essence of high-brow economics by using Two Cows in various situations to describe our differences:
Oh, so funny. The comments that follow are so good, too. I like the Bernard Madoff Two Cow version...
Finally, to take our mind off this nonsense, here is The World's Greatest Band playing last night at The Grammys ceremony, accompanied by the University of Southern California Marching Band:
1 comment:
Prediction: The bailout passes after compromises with the House and the Senate. Much bickering will ensue and the Republicans will become even more determined to distance themselves from Obama and the democrat's policies so come election time they can tell the electorate that they had nothing to do with it.
The bailout will fail much like the first one. As a consequence the national debt will increase dramatically with no appreciable return. Employment will rapidly go into the double digits, talk of another bailout will occur, and promptly be dropped as the public rebels. With a massive national debt, and the economy in tatters the American dollar will lose all trading value on the world market. Any company that can get out of America will, and the US will be eclipsed by countries such as Russia and Chine, forced to give up its superpower mantle.
Republicans now do all they can to obstruct the Democrat's efforts to fix things, resulting in half measures that do more harm than good. The economy fails completely, and the Republicans spool up the mud throwing machine come election time smearing the Democrats with a tar brush a mile wide, insisting that it was their fault. Disgusted with the apparent lack of talent among the Democrats, the Republicans are swept to a victory by the American public in 2010. Much the same things happen to them, legislation is obstructed, and nothing of merit gets done. Where things go from there I really don't want to think.
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