At present, the President has an upper 30s-to-40% approval rating. Congress, controlled by the GOP, coasts along at a 17% approval rate. These are not strong numbers for incumbents heading into an election. Distractions, deflections, Evangelical support for judges, and tax cuts for the rich only go so far.
How, then, will the GOP win against the Dems in November?
The national "generic ballot" composite poll for Congressional races in November has Dems up by 8%. Not huge, but kinda comfortable. The "Blue Wave" is still expected to roll on in, right?
Wrong-o! The 2018 election ground has been "prepared" to ensure Republican victories across the nation. Our democratic republic is a system that has problems with Democracy. In the 2016 election, House Republicans received 49% of the popular vote and 55% of the House seats. Democrats pulled in 48% of the vote, and settled for 44% of the House seats. In the Senate, the Dems have received more than 6 million votes than the Repubs, but have fewer seats. Of course, we all remember how our President won the election by losing the popular vote by nearly 3 million votes.
Here are a couple of good sources that explain how this can happen in our modern age:
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2016/11/22/gop-seats-bonus-in-congress/
https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2013/feb/19/steny-hoyer/steny-hoyer-house-democrats-won-majority-2012-popu/
Using the old chestnut, Voter Fraud, as an excuse, the GOP is determined to reduce the number of eligible, likely base of Democratic voters. The GOP has used the Vote Fraud theme since well before Donald Trump claimed - out of thin air - that he would have won by 3 million votes if not for the fraudulent 3 million+ votes that HRC received from illegal immigrants.
Never mind that Voter Fraud has never been proven beyond anecdotal single instances (the few cases implicate voters of both political stripes). Nevertheless, Widespread Voter Fraud must be stopped!
So... how are Republicans working on this vexing issue? Their guiding principle is to make it harder to register and to vote, not easier. Their methods include general voter suppression, gerrymandering, following the Russian playbook of dezinformatsiya, good ol' Dirty Tricks, and official non-distribution of Election Day resources. Let's look at these, shall we?
Voter Suppression. Techniques abound on tamping down the number of voters. Intimidation. Requiring sometimes hard-to-get IDs. Disenfranchising felons. Restricting early voting, absentee and overseas voting. Jim Crow is alive and well. A relatively new approach is to purge voters who miss an election. Examine, if you will, Exhibit A: the State of Ohio has received permission to purge up to 1 million voters from its database. Oh, and check out Exhibit B: the SCOTUS ruling against the Voter Rights Act, Section Four regarding states with past bad civil rights histories. For more ugly, here are a couple of great quick reads on the increase of voter suppression actions by the GOP:
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/7/13545718/voter-suppression-early-voting-2016
and
https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/race/news/2017/05/12/432339/five-truths-voter-suppression/
Gerrymandering is really another form of Voter Suppression. It's the states' role to draw up congressional districts' boundaries based on the 2010 US Census results (and again in 2020). The essence of Gerrymandering is to include your party voters and exclude the others. Both parties are guilty of this practice, but because Republicans control most state governments, they are the recognized experts in this practice. Using computers and voter registration databases, map-drawers can carve up a common area that makes a newly-created district resemble the digestive tract of a distressed elephant. Chipping away at opposition strongholds' jurisdictions guarantees weakened representation and diluted vote value.
Dezinformatsiya. Da, these long-practiced techniques by the KGB have been passed on to our political parties. The GOP really takes to them. The KGB used Deza as a method for depressing social activism and creating apathy among citizens. Social Media platforms like Facebook and Twitter, Fox News/Hate Radio, and our own Fibber-in-Chief all blow out enormous volumes of BS designed to agitate/engage the GOP base and demoralize Democrats. This includes the use of Russian bots/trolls, as well as GOP bots/trolls. It's not a wonder that Congressional Republicans are seeking to end the Russian investigation, and do not fund security measures to prevent cyber-attacks and election interference in our upcoming mid-terms. They know they will benefit from such actions.
Dirty Tricks. These actions can range from the national to the local. While national shenanigans capture most of the attention, it's the local scene that usually affects voter turnout. Robocalls, mailers and fliers with deliberate wrong information on when and where to vote are prime examples. Whatever it takes to keep people from voting! Check out the favorite methods:
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/11/election-dirty-tricks/
Election Day confusion is a subset of Dirty Tricks, but they are usually Official Dirty Tricks. There are polling site election judge challenges to voters' signatures/current residences as an outgrowth of the Voter Fraud hysteria. There are the "purged" voters who don't know they've been "purged". There are the planned inadequate polling places for Democratic/minority areas that result in long lines, long waits and potential voters just giving up and going home. Remember the SCOTUS ruling on the Voter Rights Act, Section 4 from above? Here is a direct consequence:
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/4/13501120/vote-polling-places-election-2016
In addition to all this malarky, there is the steep electoral terrain that Democrats must climb and hold in 2018 and beyond. It is formidable, indeed:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-congressional-map-is-historically-biased-toward-the-gop/
And, of course, there is our old friend, the Electoral College. Two of the last five Presidential elections have been "won" by a candidate who lost the popular vote. That does not suggest a healthy Democracy. When one examines the EC further, the case for it as a tool that defends Democracy becomes weak, indeed.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/how-fair-is-the-electoral-college/
Yes, the Electoral College is an 18th-Century invention that has been converted into a modern-day voter suppression machine. It rewards White voters living in rural areas with greater vote influence than anyone living elsewhere. It dilutes voter influence in more-populated states. What, you say? Observe:
https://www.washingtonian.com/2016/12/08/white-peoples-votes-are-worth-more-electoral-college-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-popular-vote-alt-right/
Then there is the court-packing that is currently underway. Never mind the Supreme Court, Trump is trying to fill the lower courts with young and dumbs like The Ghost Hunter and The Gay Conversion Therapist. As challenges to egregious state and federal voting rights laws work their way into the court system, the GOP expects numbskulls like these to rule for their party and not their country. Here is a good overview on what's happening:
https://www.voanews.com/a/donald-trump-quietly-reshapes-us-judiciary/4464398.html
Not sure about what is happening in your state? Check out this terrific link to the Brennan Center for Justice. It's a very comprehensive look at all states with voter suppression movements:
https://www.brennancenter.org/analysis/voting-laws-roundup-2017
"The bias in a democracy should be in favor of more voting, not less. That Republicans have taken a different tack reflects their doubts - not about electoral integrity but about their prospects at the polls."
Towards this end, here is a great article by the Center for American Progress on how to improve voter turnout. Some of their suggestions: Streamline voter registration (automatic registration, same day registration, preregistration for teenagers, etc.). Devote sufficient resources for elections and make them accessible. More convenient, less burdensome ways to vote (early voting, absentee voting, vote at home). Restore voting rights to formerly incarcerated people. Strengthen Civics education in schools. And the proverbial More:
https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/democracy/reports/2018/07/11/453319/increasing-voter-participation-america/
OK, Daily Kibitz, you might say. But what about me? Fair question. Suggestions include:
Register to vote. It's really easy! Already registered? Better double-check on that! Be certain your status is valid. Check with your local elections office. Use this site to determine your state/local status:
https://www.usa.gov/election-office
Then vote, often. Don't get caught in a Purge. Vote by mail... an absentee ballot will ensure that your vote won't be deleted in some "unfortunate" computer glitch. And absolutely use a paper ballot every time!!
Want to go beyond? Work to register new or lapsed voters! Here are helpers for you:
https://www.aauw.org/resource/organize-a-voter-registration-drive/
https://www.rockthevote.org
Spread the word on this growing problem. Feel free to share this blog. Email/text/tweet/talk to your friends and family. Your vote needs to be counted, and it may be in danger. FDR was right. But not voting by personal intent versus not voting because of political restrictions is the difference between a Democracy and an Autocracy. The best way to prevent Trump's GOP from winning via cheating is to overwhelm them at the ballot box. Every eligible voter needs access to the ballot box!
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